The son almost rises: Cambodia's Hun Sen the power behind throne

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia — Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet kept a low profile at the ASEAN summit in Vientiane, holding meetings on the sidelines with fellow leaders but making no public statements to the media.

An ex-military man, he marched straight past waiting reporters as he arrived for summit sessions, his most animated moment a jovial conversation with Singapore's foreign minister.

More than a year after inheriting power from his father Hun Sen, he has yet to hold an open news conference to explain how he will navigate challenges including balancing China and the West.

In contrast, Hun Sen regularly opines on government policy to his millions of social media followers.

Analysts say the father remains the power behind the throne in the Southeast Asian nation.

Officially, Hun Sen stepped down last year after nearly four decades of iron-fisted rule, passing the baton to his eldest son following a landslide win in national polls held without any significant opposition parties.

Hun Manet turns 47 on October 20, when he will have been in office for 14 months. By that age, his father had already been prime minister for 15 years.

In February, Hun Sen took over as president of the senate, the country's second-highest ceremonial role after King Norodom Sihamoni, and has since hosted every foreign dignitary visiting the country -- just as he did when prime minister.

A few months later, he openly stated his enduring authority.

"I have not finished my political life," he told an audience of government officials and foreign dignitaries.

"I am the father of the prime minister."

In one video in May, he mused over whether the ground-breaking ceremony for a billion-dollar canal project could be brought forward from the year-end proposed by the government.

It was subsequently advanced to August 5 -- Hun Sen's 72nd birthday.

Family business

Hun Sen, a former Khmer Rouge cadre, came to power in 1985 and helped modernize a country devastated by civil war and genocide.

By the time he stepped down he was Asia's longest-serving leader, backed by a class of loyal elites and with almost all opposition crushed by state-sponsored repression and politicised courts.

His youngest son Hun Many is a deputy prime minister, his third son is the head of military intelligence and several children of his allies also hold top jobs.

Hun Manet "represents a new face for an old system", said Sebastian Strangio, author of "Hun Sen's Cambodia".

"The past year makes clear that Hun Sen remains the most powerful and influential political figure inside Cambodia, and continues to play an important role in decision-making," he told AFP.

The senate presidency, he added, "has gone from being an honorary one to an alternative axis of power within the Cambodian political system".

Crackdown continued

Hun Manet graduated from the US Military Academy at West Point in 1999 and was groomed for the top job for years by his father.

His warm smile and soft tone are in stark contrast to Hun Sen's stern visage and often bombastic tirades against reporters covering human rights and corruption.

Hun Manet has charted "a more technocratic and measured approach" compared to his father's authoritarian style, said Sophal Ear of the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University.

"It appears there's a dual leadership dynamic at play, where Hun Sen retains considerable influence over major decisions, particularly in sensitive areas like foreign policy and security," he said.

"Hun Manet may handle more of the day-to-day governance, but the bigger strategic decisions likely involve both father and son."

However, crackdowns on rivals and critics of the government have not let up.

Mech Dara, an award-winning journalist known for reporting on human trafficking in the cyber scam industry, was arrested last month on charges of inciting social disorder.

An opposition leader was also fined $1.5 million in July after remarking that Cambodia was "getting worse in terms of democracy" under Hun Manet's leadership.

Analysts say Hun Manet faces a number of challenges, including economic recovery, internal party dynamics and balancing relations with China and Western countries.

Sophal Ear warned: "Whether he can handle these challenges without leaning heavily on his father remains an open question."