Emissions fell record 7 percent in 2020: study
PARIS, France — Carbon emissions fell a record seven percent in 2020 as countries imposed lockdowns and restrictions on movement during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Global Carbon Project said Friday in its annual assessment.
The fall of an estimated 2.4 billion tonnes is considerably larger than previous annual record declines, such as 0.9 billion tonnes at the end of World War II or 0.5 billion tonnes in 2009 at the height of the financial crisis.
The international team of researchers behind the report said emissions from fossil fuels and industry would be around 34 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent this year -- still a significant chunk of Earth's remaining "carbon budget".
Emissions reductions were most pronounced in the United States (down 12 percent) and the European Union (down 11 percent), the Global Carbon Project said.
In China, however, it said emissions would likely fall in 2020 just 1.7 percent as Beijing superpowered its economic recovery.
By sector, emissions from transport accounted for the largest share of the global decrease, with emissions from car journeys falling by roughly half at the peak of the first Covid-19 wave in April.
By December emissions from road transport had fallen 10 percent year-on-year and emissions from aviation were down 40 percent.
Emissions from industry -- 22 percent of the global total -- were down 30 percent in some countries with the strongest lockdown measures.
The research, normally presented during United Nations climate talks which where delayed this year until 2021 due to the pandemic, said growth in global carbon emissions had started to falter.
'Emissions edging back'
Experts warned however that it was too early to say how quickly emissions will rebound in 2021 and beyond.
Long-term emissions trends would be heavily influenced by how countries power their COVID-19 recovery plans, they said.
"All elements are not yet in place for sustained decreases in global emissions, and emissions are slowly edging back to 2019 levels," said Corinne Le Quere, a climatologist at Britain's University of East Anglia.
Under the Paris climate deal, struck among nations five years ago to the day, emissions cuts of around 1 to 2 billion tonnes are needed annually this decade to limit temperature rises to "well below" 2C (3.6 Farenheit).
The UN warned this week that 2020's unprecedented emissions falls would have a "negligible" effect on long-term warming trends without a global switch to green energy.
Philippe Ciais, a researcher at France's Laboratory of Climate and Environment Sciences, said that without the pandemic it is likely that the carbon footprint of big emitters such as China would have continued to grow in 2020.
"It's a temporary respite," he told reporters via video-link.
"The way to mitigate climate change is not to stop activity but rather to speed up the transition to low-carbon energy."
And 2020's emissions fall has not translated into a reduction in the levels of carbon pollution in Earth's atmosphere, Ciais added.
"What we really need to know is if investments linked to economic recoveries are going to create proper growth in low-carbon technologies and a tangible fall in emissions."
Earth's remaining carbon budget is the estimated amount of emissions the atmosphere can take before the Paris climate goals are rendered obsolete.
2020 aside, emissions have grown each year since the landmark 2015 accord, and the UN says they must fall 7.6 percent annually by 2030 to reach the more ambitious Paris temperature cap of 1.5C.
"Put simply, global emissions of carbon (even this year) continue to outstrip nature's ability to lock it up," said Grant Allen, professor of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Manchester, who was not involved in Friday's research.
At current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, Earth could warm by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) as early as 2030, the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change says in a landmark report.
"Global warming is likely to reach 1.5C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate," the report concluded with "high confidence."
Earth's surface has warmed one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit)—enough to lift oceans and unleash a crescendo of deadly storms, floods and droughts—and is on track toward an unliveable 3C or 4C rise.
Japan issued heatstroke alerts Sunday to tens of millions of people as near-record high temperatures scorched swathes of the country, while torrential rain pummelled other regions.
National broadcaster NHK warned viewers that the heat was at life-threatening levels, as temperatures soared to nearly 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some places, including the capital Tokyo.
"Please stay hydrated and use air conditioners appropriately, and refrain from outings that seem difficult," a news presenter said. — AFP
Developing countries voice "disappointment" as climate talks in Germany ended Thursday with frustrations flaring over a lack of momentum on helping vulnerable nations cope with the impacts of warming.
With world attention drawn towards other challenges, notably Russia's invasion of Ukraine and spiralling food, energy and economic crises, the technical discussions meant to lay the groundwork for key United Nations negotiations later this year were mired in disagreements.
Representatives of nearly 200 countries arrived in the city of Bonn buoyed by the ambition displayed six months ago during the UN COP26 negotiations in Glasgow, where countries rallied around the urgent threat of climate change.
"After that sense of emergency had been established, probably the expectations were very high," says Preety Bhandari, senior climate adviser at the World Resources Institute. — AFP
Negotiators from almost 200 countries will meet in Bonn Monday for climate talks tasked with reigniting momentum on tackling global warming, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine overshadows the threat from rising emissions.
The conference will set the stage for a fresh round of major United Nations talks later this year in Egypt.
It will also be a chance to test the resolve of nations facing a catalogue of crises, including escalating climate impacts, geopolitical tensions, bloodshed in Ukraine and the threat of a devastating global food crisis.
"Climate change is not an agenda we can afford to push back on our global schedule," said outgoing UN climate change chief Patricia Espinosa ahead of the meeting. — AFP
Nations in the G20 group of major economies have yet to strengthen greenhouse gas reduction goals despite agreeing to revisit their plans ahead of critical UN climate talks in November, according to an analysis by leading research NGOs seen exclusively by AFP.
At the Glasgow COP26 climate summit last year countries pledged to review inadequate plans for cutting carbon pollution this decade ahead of the COP27 conference.
Two G20 nations — India and Turkey — have failed to update their original carbon cutting plans submitted in 2015, as required under the Paris Agreement.
Neither has non-G20 member Egypt, which will host the COP27 climate summit in November. — AFP
Four key climate change indicators all set new record highs in 2021, the United Nations said Wednesday, warning that the global energy system was driving humanity towards catastrophe.
Greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, ocean heat and ocean acidification all set new records last year, the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its "State of the Global Climate in 2021" report.
"The global energy system is broken and bringing us ever closer to climate catastrophe," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said of the findings. — AFP
- Latest
- Trending
