Negative campaigning

Kicking off the official campaign of administration candidates for the Senate, President Marcos went negative, showing a different aspect of his persona.

His principal targets: candidates who are behind tokhang, the pandemic corruption scandals and the pivot to China. While BBM did not name names, those were obvious digs at the pro-Duterte candidates.

The thing about negative campaigning is that it tends to draw a counter-negative campaign. And it almost always raises the question: OK, we know what’s wrong with your rivals. But why should we vote for you?

In the 2016 campaign, the administration went heavily negative, and ended up antagonizing all the rivals of Mar Roxas. It failed to raise his ratings, and the negative campaign achieved the opposite in the case of his rival Rodrigo Duterte, whose promise to kill all narcos big and small in six months actually appealed to voters.

This time, the normally conflict-averse BBM read his Alyansa campaign spiel with uncharacteristic bombast directed at the Duterte candidates.

It was a fascinating focus, considering that there are only two Duterte diehards running for the Senate who might make it in the midterm polls: reelectionists Bong Go and Ronald dela Rosa. Even Rodrigo Duterte’s spiritual adviser Apollo Quiboloy is facing an uphill battle.

The unapologetic Bato dela Rosa said he would conduct a tokhang campaign – meaning he would go house to house, knocking on doors to plead for votes. In face-to-face campaigning, his formidable sense of humor and folksy persona could actually boost his support.

As for Bong Go, he has succeeded in claiming personal ownership of the Malasakit health centers – a program under the state-funded Assistance to Individuals in Crisis Situations. Malasakit under AICS politicizes the health care that should be provided through the apolitical Philippine Health Insurance Corp. But we all know that Congress gave PhilHealth zero subsidy this year, while creating or padding funding for unconditional ayuda programs for which politicians can claim personal credit.

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Considering the sustained lead of administration candidates in the surveys, BBM’s negative campaign is puzzling. Unless the administration wants to shut out the Duterte candidates.

Quiboloy isn’t even rating in the top 15 slots. There’s speculation on whether the administration slate will junk Sen. Imee Marcos, who has vowed to fight to the end the removal by impeachment of her BFF Vice President Sara Duterte, and who has no love lost for BBM’s favorite cousin, Speaker Martin Romualdez.

Ate Imee, however, joined her brother on stage at the Alyansa kickoff rally in Laoag this week.

This leaves only two Duterte diehards who could make it: Dela Rosa and Bong Go, who keeps landing in the top five in surveys. Go’s posters have been displayed across the country long before the filing of certificates of candidacy. It’s intriguing that the government has not tried to restrict him from using the tax-funded Malasakit centers for self-promotion.

In going negative, BBM also derided the groups that he noted can’t even put up a full slate for the Senate.

Not surprisingly, it drew negative reactions not just from the Dutertes, but also from smaller rival camps. They pointed out the sins of the current administration, beginning with the failed aspiration for P20-a-kilo rice, inflation, and the latest being the institutionalization of budgetary plunder.

BBM’s harangue indicated that the administration continues to feel threatened by the now much weakened Duterte forces.

Specifically, it looks like Marcos 2.0 remains threatened by a Duterte 2.0 in 2028. Apart from ouster by impeachment, which could permanently bar her from public office, VP Sara now also faces criminal complaints for grave threats and inciting to sedition.

If convicted in a criminal proceeding, it will include the penalty of permanent disqualification from public office. But the conviction will have to be final, which means final judgment by the Supreme Court. The entire process could take years, during which Sara Duterte can still run for president in 2028 – if she hasn’t been ousted yet by an impeachment court.

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In the light of what is happening to the Duterte forces led by VP Sara, a Duterte 2.0 is going to be unforgiving to the current ruling class or naghaharing uri.

Sara Duterte, if she becomes president, may find a way to have Ferdinand the Dictator’s remains dug up from the heroes’ cemetery and tossed into the (non-existent) West Philippine Sea.

Failing in that, Inday Sara can have BBM’s mommie dearest Imeldific dragged if not to hell then at least to the Correctional Institution for Women, to finally serve her sentence for seven counts of graft.

VP Sara herself has categorically said, for the first time, that she is “seriously considering” a presidential bid in 2028.

Much will hinge on the outcome of the midterm elections. Even her impeachment trial will depend on the composition of the Senate in the incoming 20th Congress.

The administration wants a modicum of assurance that the VP will be convicted by the impeachment court. There’s no such assurance in the current Senate.

The need for such assurance must be behind the effort to shut out the pro-Duterte candidates, and the wait for the Senate in the 20th Congress to sit in judgment in the impeachment trial.

To attain the objective, BBM has taken the negative path. The peanut gallery awaits its impact in May.