Realistically speaking, with the fast-approaching midterm elections, the desire to remove Vice President Sara Duterte from office through impeachment is already out of context, if not impossible, at this time. Time is an obstacle, even if the process is done through the shortest route, let alone if it undergoes the regular impeachment process.
By February 11, the campaign period will begin. We know very well that politicians, particularly the senators, do not seem eager to take sides. They prefer not to make impeachment the main topic. Candidates who appeared during the Sinulog Grand Parade last Sunday preferred discussing lighter issues rather than focusing on impeachment.
Astute politicians know that once a candidate identifies himself as pro-impeachment, he risks losing the support of Duterte’s solid followers. On the other hand, if he identifies himself as anti-impeachment, he will lose the support of the anti-Duterte camp. Politicians want to please everyone.
So, if impeachment is not realized in the 19th Congress, it can be pursued in the next Congress. Hence, the upcoming election is crucial, especially for senators who will serve as judges should an article of impeachment be transmitted to the Senate.
For voters who want Duterte to be impeached, it is essential to vote for senators who have expressed clear intentions to support her removal, or at least are perceived to support it. They need to rally behind these candidates, understanding that without that critical mass in the Senate, any attempt to remove Duterte will be doomed to failure.
Consequently, those who do not want Duterte to be convicted in the impeachment proceedings should support pro-Duterte candidates. As of now, voters have an idea of which senators are clear supporters of the Dutertes.
This election will serve as a test of the endorsement power of incumbent President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and former president Rodrigo Duterte, along with his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte. Both camps have endorsed candidates, in addition to those running under other parties or as independents.
Our company, Radio Mindanao Network, in partnership with Oculum Research and Analytics, conducted a joint survey from December 16 to 22 last year. Due to space constraints, I will not go into further details about the survey but will present the results.
Emerging as the top candidate is ACT Partylist Representative Erwin Tulfo, followed by Vicente Sotto III, with Raffy Tulfo in third place, though statistically tied with Sotto. They are followed by incumbent Senators Ramon Revilla Jr., Pia Cayetano, Manny Pacquiao, Bong Go, and Bato De La Rosa. Next are Mayor Abby Binay, former senator Ping Lacson, Representative Camille Villar, and celebrity Willie Revillame. Senator Imee Marcos is included in the magic 12, as she is statistically tied with Revillame.
Formidable candidates who have a great chance to enter the magic 12, based on their rankings, include Sen. Lito Lapid, former senator Gringo Honasan, former DILG secretary Benhur Abalos, former senator Kiko Pangilinan, Dr. Willie Ong, former senator Bam Aquino, and Sen. Francis Tolentino. Representative Rodante Marcoleta and celebrity Philip Salvador are also catching up in the senatorial race.
The ranking from this survey is still volatile, as the campaign period has not yet started. Some candidates have not yet launched their campaign ads. We will see what happens in the next surveys, and of course, on the final day of judgment --the May 12, 2025 election.