In the last two weeks there were three events with large crowds that have important and long-term meanings. The first is the Traslacion in Manila last January 9, which had 1.4 million people attending and joining the procession that lasted almost 20 hours. The second was the Peace rally of the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) that had 1.3 million attendees in Manila and some 200,000 in other cities. The third is the ongoing week-long Sinulog festivities in Cebu which have already gathered hundreds of thousands in the Masses, in processions, in the fluvial parade, concerts other pre-event happenings. This will be capped by the more than 2.5 million who will join/attend the grand parade.
Given the nature, geography, and participants of these events, there is no overlapping and double counting of the participants in the Traslacion and the Peace rally. In the Sinulog, most of the participants in the pre-event happenings will also be in the main Sinulog event. Still the Sinulog attendance will be more than double the crowds in the Traslacion or the INC peace rally. Effectively, some five million Filipinos were out in the streets for these three crowded events.
The “Traslacion” is purely a religious procession/celebration of faith by Filipino Catholics, while the Sinulog is both a religious and socio-cultural event. The INC peace rally was a socio-political gathering to demonstrate its political heft/clout and to influence coming political events like the impeachment and the mid-term elections.
Crowd estimation is getting more accurate with drones that can take multiple photos of the crowd from various altitudes. Given the area and the density, a realistic attendance quantity is obtained. However, the objectives of the event promoters which are political and economic, make them overestimate the crowds, so an addition of 10% to 20% of their crowd estimates are in order. The economic objective is to show the financial impact of the events and establish momentum for the subsequent years. The political objective is to show discipline and growth of members.
The implications of the bigger crowd in the Traslacion is not just about the increase of the Manila population, but also the economic and social conditions of the participants. They join this procession to pray for favors to solve/alleviate personal, economic, and social problems. Many also join to express gratitude to the Black Nazarene and to continue to receive blessings. It is an indicator of the social and economic condition in Metro Manila. This would be the same motivation in the religious side of the Sinulog, prayers for physical, social, and economic alleviation to the Señor Santo Niño/Child Jesus. The festive portion of the Cebu Sinulog is purely economic and financial. The parties, the tourism promotions, and the parades are to generate consumer expenditures and capital investments that will grow Cebu’s economy (GDP) every year.
The INC peace rally was purely a political hedging event. While the INC leaders officially denied it was a political event, this was triggered by the investigation of VP Sara Duterte and former president Duterte’s corruption issues and extra-judicial killings in the quad committee of the Lower House of Congress. This was confirmed by the anti-impeachment placards and speeches in the rally. The pronounced ambivalence that they were not taking sides in the Marcos-Duterte fight was seen through by the people.
Amassing crowds are games that governments, leaders and politicians play to get people support and stay in power. The most successful crowd gatherings that delivered the messages and resulted in socio-political change, were/are those that were initiated and sustained by the people, of the people and for the people. The Filipinos’ People Power peaceful revolution that lasted a week, the million-people walk in Washington for civil rights equality, the French and Russian revolution, and other large-crowd assemblies that toppled governments are testaments of successful large-crowd gatherings.