Prospects of an Asian, even a Filipino pope

The year may yet usher into the world earth-shaking news of Pope Francis, the 266th Supreme Pontiff resigning the seat of Peter, following the footsteps of his predecessor Pope Benedict XVI, due to declining health. At age 88, he moves around on a wheelchair and he has only one lung as a result of an operation caused by a severe pneumonia before he joined the Society of Jesus.

In the last few months, Pope Francis has hinted on relinquishing his post and putting in place many important reforms in the structures, procedures, and rules in governing the Holy See. The world today is very different from the world when Rerum Novarum was written by Pope Leo XIII on May 15, 1891. As of today, the population of the world stands at 7.9 billion people with only 1.4 billion Catholics. The number of Catholics in Europe is decreasing while those of Asia, Africa, Oceania and the Americas, especially in South and Central America are rising in rapid rates and volumes. In fact, it is commonly understood among the Vatican decision-makers that the future of the Catholic Church is in Asia and Africa.

The global ratio of the number of priests over the number of Catholics is one priest for every 3,314 Catholics. In Europe, there is one priest for every 1,746. In the Americas, it is one priest per 2,086 Catholics. In Africa, there is only one priest for every 5,089 Catholics. In Asia, there is only one priest for every 3,373 Catholics. The top 20 most Catholic countries are the following: Brazil has 12.4 million; Mexico, 100 million; Philippines, 88.5 million; the US, 69.3 million; Italy, 50.5 million; France, 39 million; Colombia, 35 million; Poland, 33 million; Spain, 30.7 million; Argentina, 28.8 million; Democratic Republic of Congo, 28.7 million; Peru, 23.7 million; Germany, 23 million; Venezuela, 22.4 million; Uganda, 16.5 million; India, 15.5 million; Canada, 13.8 million; Tanzania, 12.2 million; and China, 12 million.

In Asia, the Philippines, of course, has the most number of Catholics. In our country, 82% of the 117 million people are Catholics. We have 86 dioceses, 2,909 parishes, 5,037 diocesan priests, 2,298 religious priests, or a total of 7,335. In India, there are 149 dioceses and 8,583 parishes, with 19,946 priests. In Indonesia, there are 37 dioceses, 1,130 parishes, and 3,038 priests. In Vietnam, there are 25 dioceses and 2,228 parishes with 2,668 priests. In China, there are 117 dioceses and 2,335 parishes with 4,559 priests. In Papua New Guinea, there are 19 dioceses and 305 parishes with only 501 priests. In Malaysia, there are eight dioceses and 132 parishes with 227 priests. In East Timor where 94% of the population is Catholic, there are two dioceses with 37 parishes and 113 priests.

The statistics indicate that the next pope should come from Asia or Africa. But that is not how the pope is elected. There are a myriad of factors to be considered. Most prominently mentioned are four, namely: Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the incumbent secretary of state. Next, our very own, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle who is known as Asia' Pope Francis because his values, advocacies, and guiding philosophies are almost exactly congruent with those of the Pope. Another is Cardinal Gerald Cyprien Lacroix of Quebec, Canada. The fourth one is a dark horse (no pun intended) coming from Ghana, Africa, Cardinal Peter Turkson. Tagle, at 67, and Parolin, at 69, are considered too young, and Turkson at 73 is too old. Well, age doesn't matter. Pope Francis was 77 when elected. Pope John Paul II was only 58.

Cardinal Tagle is the youngest among the three but is the one perceived as closest to Pope Francis. He has been designated as the cardinal-bishop of San Felice da Cantalice a Centocelle and president of the Interdicasterial Commission for Consecrated Religious, also grand chancellor of the Pontifical Urbaniana University and also president of the Catholic Biblical Federation. His previous posts include being president of the Caritas International from 2015 to 2022, and prefect of the Congregation of the Evangelization of Peoples from 2019 to 2022.

We all know that he was ordained priest on February 17, 1982, consecrated bishop on December 12, 2001, and created cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI on November 24, 2012. I have a dream that he will be the first Asian Pope.