Looking back to 2024

In 2024, there were events that have been considered as seismic in their effects on the Philippines and the world. In the Philippines, the biggest political event was the end of the alliance called the UniTeam. When this alliance started, many observers felt it was unlikely to last. Even during the campaign of the UniTeam, former president Rodrigo Duterte continued his barrage of personal attacks against Bongbong Marcos (BBM). The attacks were not just political but also personal, such as his constant accusation that BBM was a user of illegal drugs.

There were many other subsequent major stories the rest of the year but the root cause was the split-up. There were the much watched quad comm hearings that led to the exposure of alleged illegal transactions in the use of confidential funds by the office of the Vice President. These hearings subsequently revealed that many of the recipients of the confidential funds were actually non-existent persons, like Mary Grace Piattos.

Political observers have said that these hearings were actually the first salvo in the coming presidential elections. At this point in time, the two leading presidential contenders are supposedly Vice President Sara Duterte and Speaker Martin Romualdez.

It is too early to make any accurate predictions since other presidential contenders can emerge between now and the 2028 presidential elections.

One possibility is Senator Risa Hontiveros, who is presently the acknowledged leader of the opposition. Hontiveros has impressed a lot of people with her handling of the committee hearings in the Senate and her gallant lonely stand as the lone voice of reason and courage, confronting not just Digong Duterte but also several senators who were vigorously defending Duterte.

These hearings led to the arrest of Sara Duterte’s chief of staff Zuleika Lopez, which caused Sara Duterte to take a combative stance. In a televised statement, the Vice President openly and publicly said that if she was the victim of an assassination, she had already contacted someone to take the lives of her so-called sworn enemies, President Marcos, First Lady Liza Araneta Marcos and Speaker Martin Romualdez.

If the UniTeam had not broken up, these quad comm hearings may not have taken place at all.

My own personal observation is that the UniTeam was doomed to split up. The low regard that Digong Duterte had for BBM would inevitably lead to a major feud between the two political families.

Presidential ambitions would also inevitably lead to a clash between the two family dynasties. The first major test of the comparative strength of the two families is the coming midterm elections. Both families are fielding complete senatorial slates. While the Duterte ticket is relatively weaker politically, the loyalty of its members is considered unquestionable. The Marcos ticket is considered stronger but it includes some names whose loyalty may be considered questionable.

One of the big questions in this ongoing battle of family dynasties is the role of Sen. Imee Marcos. She is included in BBM’s senatorial ticket but Imee publicly states that her friendship with the Dutertes remains as firm as before. If she wins, political observers will be watching her every move to see where she will finally align herself in the 2028 presidential elections. Unless she decides to run for president herself.

In the international political scene, the big story is, of course, the victory of Donald Trump as president-elect of the United States. While he has yet to officially assume office, he has already engaged in many major policy statements.

The first is his decision to impose tariffs all over the world, especially on China. There are economic predictions that these could stifle global trade and possibly lead to a global recession. His imposition of tariffs will inevitably lead to other countries also imposing tariffs on American products. He has publicly indicated that he will use American economic might to force other countries to adopt policies favorable to the United States. For example, he has said that he will impose tariffs on Canada and at the same time, he is demanding that Canada import more gas and oil from the US.

Under Trump, the role of the United States as the world leader for the defense of democracy could change. He has expressed public admiration for authoritarian leaders in China, Hungary, Russia and even North Korea. His view of foreign policy seems to be on a transactional basis. This means that his foreign policy is not influenced by ideology or human rights but is solely based on what is the most beneficial for the United States.

While he has said he will continue providing aid for Ukraine, he has also said he will find a way to a complete ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, without laying down the condition that Russia must vacate the territories of Ukraine that it presently occupies.

A major issue that I believe will surface during the Trump regime is the case of the United Nations. In the past, Trump never expressed admiration for this international body. The most intriguing question is whether the United Nations can continue to survive if the United States decides to pull out of this organization. I believe this will be a major issue this coming year.

The year 2024 was a politically tumultuous year for the Philippines and for the world. Unfortunately, I believe that these trends will continue in the coming year.