Winners/loser in the fall of Syria’s Assad

After 41 years of brutal dictatorial rule, or more than 50 years if we include the reign of his father, Bashar al-Assad was driven out of Syria as the rebels entered Damascus last December 8. His feared armed forces had disappeared, and the rebels and the civilians were celebrating in the streets, climbing up the tanks and entering the palaces/government offices. This was reminiscent of the Philippines People Power revolution in 1986 which deposed Marcos Sr. after 26 years, but in this case Assad went to Moscow, Russia, while Marcos went to Hawaii in the US.

The governments/political leaders in the Middle East, the allies of Assad, the opponents of his regime, and other geo-political players in the world were surprised with the speed of his downfall as the rebellion was on its 13th year. They are now sorting out the consequences and implications of Assad’s fall to their countries, especially, on Russia, Iran, Israel, Turkey, and the US.

Syria is a country in the Middle East bordering many Arab countries and Israel. Syria gained independence in 1946 and in 1970, Hafez al-Assad, the father of Bashar al-Assad took power as dictator. He built a formidable army in reaction to Israel’s taking portions of the Golan Heights, but also used it to suppress opposition and all dissent in Syria. When his father died, Bashar Assad took over and continued as a dictator. Even with a strong arm government, civil war erupted in 2011 with the ISIS and Al Qaeda joining the endemic rebels to topple Assad.

Ahmad Al-Sharaa who march into Damascus last week as conquering hero, had links to ISIS and Mohammed Al-Bashir who is now interim premier had links to Al Qaeda, although they are now with HTS, which was once classified as a terrorist group by Turkey, the US, and many other countries. It is now a complicated/complex political alliances and situation that winners and losers in the near term are hard to detect, but will hopefully eventually play out well in the long term.

At this juncture, the obvious winners are the Syrian people who had been freed from a tyrannical rule/ruler. Millions of Syrians who had fled to neighboring Turkey, Jordan and other Arab countries are now planning to return to Syria. Turkey and their president Erdogan, who had been supporting the rebels are also immediate winners. Russia and Iran who had been supporting Assad are currently losers. Russia has a naval and air force base in Syria, had to reduce their presence and did not engage the rebels. Neither did Iran, who had propped up Assad’s regime to bolster their conflict with Israel. Israel also came out ahead as Syria’s ambition in Golan is gone, and Israel immediately shelled/bombarded the military sites of Syria days after the fall of Assad. The US is at an even situation, as they only have a few hundred troops in Syria assigned to contain ISIS proliferation, and is viewed as not taking sides even if it objected to the autocratic rule of Assad.

Ideologically, Democracy is a winner as an autocratic tyrannical form of government has ended. Every tyrant, despot, strongman, and populist leader in the world, has taken note of the implications of this event. The longing for freedom and liberty cannot be easily extinguished regardless of race, culture, or religion. These would be significantly important to many Middle Eastern Arab countries which are benign autocracy, and some Eastern European countries like Georgia and Hungary who wants to cling to Russia to maintain its autocratic government. The biggest loser is Assad, who had to mislead his remaining loyalists to safely escape to Russia.

Bashar al-Assad is married to a British citizen, and is a British schooled/trained doctor whose specialty is ophthalmology. Somehow, he must have lost his vision for Syria a long time ago.