The impeachment process to remove Duterte as vice president has started and ongoing. The filing of the articles of impeachment by three groups of complainants signed and endorsed by some congressmen is the first step. Then, these will be reconciled and consolidated as these have common grounds/basis, and forwarded to the Committee on Justice for determination of sufficiency in form and substance for the Senate trial.
The grounds for the impeachment of VP Duterte includes culpable violation of the Constitution, bribery, betrayal of public trust, graft and corruption, and others. These are similar to the accusations in the impeachment complaints filed against ex-president Estrada and ex-Supreme Court justice Corona, but because of information technology and social media, the video/audio and documentary testimonies and evidence are more glaring and irrefutable. The aggressive behavior and verbal excesses of the Dutertes further supports the allegations, so at this stage of the impeachment process, VP Duterte is losing. Still, since impeachment is a political process, the facts and the law may be less persuasive on the senator-judges, so the game is not over.
The publication of the narrative of the impeachment articles have put Duterte on the defensive with her denials and/or absence of denials, but time and the timeline of the impeachment may be on her side. A delay or inaction by Congress to forward the articles of impeachment to the Senate and a protracted Senate trial, will put the proceedings near the campaign period of the mid-term elections. Some congressmen and senators will/do not want to make decisions for or against impeachment that may affect their winning or losing the election. This will give the Duterte camp time to re-group, shore up their political and financial resources, and elect enough congressmen and senators to thwart the impeachment.
While BBM may have distanced from the impeachment move, the Marcos group strategy should be for the impeachment timeline to end by February 2025 with a judgment. Given the political atmosphere now up to February, a decision of impeachment would have a higher probability. An impeachment voting after the election would be more problematic, because the elected senators and congressmen would be less beholden to BBM, who cannot seek reelection, but will scan the horizon for the possible presidential candidates for 2028.
The pronouncements of VP Duterte which includes death threats and exhuming the remains of BBM’s father can only get worse if the unimpeached VP Duterte goes on the campaign trail for the mid-term 2025 and the presidential elections in 2028. She will dig up all of the Marcos crimes and liabilities, and there goes the rehabilitation of the Marcos name and legacy. BBM and the Marcoses have to move to stop these probable consequences.
Unprincipled politicians and government officials are already losers in this impeachment process. Many of them are “fence sitters” who do to want to take sides to be able to get the support of both conflicting parties. The Iglesia ni Cristo stance of having a rally to support BBM’s position against the VP’s impeachment is a classic “namamangka sa dalawang ilog”. The independent middle class voters see through this, so they will lose this sizable chunk of voters. They will have to spend more to offset these with the command votes.
Impeachment voting by the senators before or after the mid-term election will be a win for Philippine democracy and the Filipino people. Accountability and transparency in government will improve and hopefully truth and justice will follow, together with better government officials.