Zarzuela?

One scenario in the ongoing political storm is that a game of good cop, bad cop is afoot, with the bad one being… never mind.

Another is that President Marcos is genuinely open to mending ties with Vice President Sara Duterte (“never say never,” he said), due to the egging of folks who were part of the UniTeam and are now worried about being trampled by the fighting elephants.

In another conciliatory gesture over the weekend, BBM’s House allies ordered the release of the VP’s beloved chief of staff Zuleika Lopez, whose transfer to the Correctional Institution for Women (hastily aborted) made the VP go ballistic.

Still another scenario is that VP Sara’s impeachment is truly dead, but her legal prosecution for multiple offenses is very much alive. Also, the International Criminal Court (ICC) might include her in arrest warrants, to be coursed through the Interpol.

As of the weekend, the VP had not commented on BBM’s marching order to his super majority allies in the House of Representatives to focus on more important concerns and not waste time impeaching his estranged UniTeam running mate.

The VP’s silence is fueling speculation that her camp suspects BBM to be simply acting to distance himself as his House allies led by his favorite cousin go for the jugular and proceed with her impeachment.

VP Sara, who may not relish reversing anytime soon her comment that her ties with BBM have reached a “point of no return,” said only that she could have already been president in 2022.

Surely her father’s thoughts exactly; Rodrigo Duterte must’ve muttered “I told you so” under his breath a million times already since the 2022 election results showed Sara getting even more votes than BBM.

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So, was BBM’s “don’t impeach” message real, or merely part of a zarzuela?

From the reactions of key House members, the message seems genuine. But people are still waiting for the final word from Speaker Martin Romualdez himself before believing BBM.

Because it was a public pronouncement from the President, proceeding with the impeachment would be seen as defiance by the House.

The progressive blocs say they are waiting to endorse any impeachment complaint. But even if a complaint is filed, can the one-third vote of the chamber be mustered after BBM’s statement?

If there aren’t enough votes, the VP will be inoculated from impeachment for one calendar year. By that time, there will be a new Congress, and who knows where the political winds will be blowing?

Even if articles of impeachment are forwarded to the Senate, it’s uncertain if there’s appetite in the chamber for an impeachment trial when everyone will soon be busy with the 2025 election campaign.

A likelier scenario is that the administration will just go after the Dutertes through the legal system, which is less politicized than the impeachment process. The Dutertes, after all, are afflicted with chronic foot-in-mouth disease, and are giving all the legal ammunition that can be used against them to their foes.

If the administration opts for this route, it must ensure that justice won’t move at its usual snail’s pace.

“Inordinate delay” in litigation will reinforce accusations of political persecution. And Sara Duterte could be portrayed as an underdog as the 2028 presidential race approaches. Only her ouster in an impeachment trial can permanently bar her from running for public office.

Independent of the political turbulence is the continuing investigation being carried out by the ICC for possible crimes against humanity involving former president Duterte and several of his aides. The probe includes drug killings in Davao City when Duterte and his daughter served alternately as mayor, so VP Sara may also be issued an ICC arrest warrant.

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The VP has been trying to walk back her expletive-laced weekend rant about putting out a contract against BBM, wife Liza and cousin the Speaker. The sight of the VP publicly coming undone in both words and facial expression seems to have spooked even her dwindling diehard supporters.

Facing the House committee on good government and public accountability, during which she finally deigned to take her oath, the VP looked around and observed that she had no congressman-supporter present to raise a point of order if she needed it during her testimony.

Instead her “mentor” Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the savvy political survivor, was at the plenary, posing for photos near the tambaloslos and joining colleagues in a thumbs-up to the House resolution expressing support for Romualdez.

GMA, during her presidency, found it lonely at the top. It must be lonelier at the bottom, where the VP and her relatives are being pushed down by their enemies.

With the realization that the VP is not immune from suit, she now faces investigation for multiple offenses.

National Bureau of Investigation Director Jaime Santiago told “Storycon” on One News last Thursday that it is the NBI’s mandate to probe all security threats targeting the nation’s top officials. So the NBI initiated motu proprio the probe of the VP’s “kill” threat.

Santiago, a retired judge, brushed aside the explanation that the threat was “conditional,” pointing out that all grave threats are accompanied by a condition – as in, if you don’t pay up, I will kill you.

At the same time, Santiago said the NBI is also investigating the VP’s claim of a threat on her life.

Even if VP Sara is found guilty of any offense and sent to prison, she can be removed from office only through impeachment. BBM’s statement has put this effort in limbo.

In case Duterte is ousted, BBM will have to pick a new VP. And so far, the only name being mentioned as her replacement is Romualdez.

Will BBM be brazen enough to pick his cousin? On this issue, he might want to listen to the views of his Ate Imee.

As of last night, the only thing with a degree of certainty is that the administration is still out to pin down the Dutertes. How it intends to go about it, however, is unclear, possibly because the options are still being weighed.