India-China rivalry

India and China are in fierce competition to become the second global superpower. Although China is clearly the stronger nation today, India is catching up fast with its strong economy, military build up and diplomatic offensive. 

India’s rise comes at an opportune time. China’s economy is on a downward spiral as it struggles with crippling debt, declining foreign investments and capital flight in the trillions of dollars. It is plagued with high youth unemployment, a property bust, diminished household wealth, low consumer demand and the prospect of deflation. On top of these, China faces a demographic time bomb.

In terms of diplomatic relations, China’s bad behavior in trade and refusal to abide by the rule of law have earned it a reputation as a pariah state. Its multiple and simultaneous territorial grabs, acts of aggression, debt traps and support for Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine have caused it to become increasingly isolated from law-abiding states.

India, on the other hand, is growing from strength to strength. It has overtaken China as the world’s most populous nation with 1.43 billion consumers. It has emerged as the fifth largest global economy and continues to grow at a rate of six to seven percent annually. Today, India ranks fourth in the global firepower and military power index. It ranks 11th in diplomatic strength. It ranks fourth in innovation and technology. It is the seventh nation with the most technology patents filed. India is also the eighth largest recipient of foreign direct investments.

The South Asian nation is the world’s largest democracy with a record of faithful compliance to the rule of law. Since 1947, it has followed the principle of non-alignment and peaceful coexistence. India’s foreign policy is aimed to protect its borders without actively seeking to acquire new territories. It has never started a war – its military conflicts have largely been in response to external aggression.

Moreover, Indian culture celebrates diversity, pluralism, spirituality and family centerness.

India makes no secret of its ambitions to displace China as the world’s second most powerful nation, after the US. Both countries no longer hide their contempt. In fact, Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar admitted that the relationship between the two are “not normal and that a cold war exists.”

China blocks India’s access to the world

By surrounding India with military installations, China aims to restrict India’s access to the world whilst gaining military leverage. This is China’s way of quelling India’s ambitions.

In the last decade, China has moved to surround India’s southern coast with ports that function as military installations. Through its BRI program, China developed and assumed control of Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, the Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar, the Chittagong Port in Bangladesh, the Port of Lamu in Kenya, a naval base in Djibouti and the Port of Dar Es Salam in Tanzania.

These ports constitute a “string of pearls” meant to choke India’s access to the world.

In the north, China laid claim to the Doklam Plataeau as well as the Jakarlung and Pasamlung Valley.

The Doklam Plateau is strategic since it is located in the tri-junction of India, China and Bhutan. The plateau is near the Siliguri Corridor, a narrow stretch of land in northeastern India that connects the mainland to its northeastern states. The corridor is only 20 kilometers wide, making it a vulnerable chokepoint. Chinese control over Doklam can potentially separate the Indian mainland from its seven states in the northeast.

The Jakarlung and Pasamlung Valleys are located along the disputed border between Bhutan and China. They are significant since they are near Tibet and could serve as access points to India. They are also near India’s sensitive regions of Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

India builds alliances to surround China

Just as China built its “string of pearls,” India has built a “diamond necklace” with which to choke China’s access to the Indian Ocean, East and South China Seas. Rather than leading countries to debt traps, India has gained access to military installations by forging alliances with like-minded counties.

Among these alliances is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), a strategic alliance between India, the US, Japan and Australia. 

In the Gulf, India was granted military access to the Duqm Port in Oman, situated between China’s strongholds in Pakistan’s Gwadar Port and Djibouti’s Military Base. It also gained military access to the Chabhar Port in Iran. Similarly, it signed an agreement with the Seychelles for access to its naval base. This gives it presence in Africa.

In Asia, India was granted access to the Changi Naval Base in Singapore. This gives it easy access to the Malacca, Lombok and Sunda Straits. It was granted military access to the Sabang Port in Indonesia, which is within striking distance to the Malacca strait. It was also granted military access to the Cam Ranh Port in Vietnam. Meanwhile, India and the Philippines have began to cooperate by way of missile exchanges.

India and Japan signed an Acquisition and Cross Servicing Agreement. This allows the militaries of both nations to exchange supplies and services, including the use of ports. 

More significantly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has gone on a diplomatic offensive. He’s gone on 84 foreign trips covering 71 countries since 2014.

Time will tell whether India will surpass China as the second most influential nation on the planet and the predominant representative of the global south. Surely, economic and diplomatic tailwinds are working to India’s favor. Still, we will be foolhardy to underestimate China’s military might. Post-peak nations have a tendency to act radically as they cling to power.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan