Classic VP Duterte meltdown or…

The standoff in Congress of VP Duterte while staying with her chief-of-staff Zuleika Lopez in detention and resistance to have her transferred to the women’s correctional facility was all over the news and social media by Saturday morning. Congress authorities cited security reasons and complications, with the VP staying in her congressman brother’s office to be with Lopez, and her request to go jogging in the Congress grounds for the duration. Footage of the confrontation and in the transfer of Lopez to the St. Luke’s Hospital in Quezon City were shown, but later reports said that she was eventually transferred to Veterans Memorial Hospital also in Q.C.

In a press conference which was likely Friday night, VP Duterte alleged that Liza Marcos had given her instructions on where to get funds/money and sent her DepEd envelopes. Her most explosive/inflammatory statement in the video was her declaration that she has hired an assassin to revenge kill Romualdez, Liza Marcos, and BBM if she is killed. She stated this with a straight face fronting the camera. This is not “hyperbole” at all.

The consensus among most of those who had seen the video was that it looks like a case of emotional meltdown brought partly by the pressure on her by the Congress Quadcomm investigating the irregularities of her confidential funds as VP and DepEd head, including large actual cash transfers of funds from the Land Bank to her offices. This is also supported by her temperament, and previous incidents of her actions and reactions of getting her way all the time.

On the other hand, this latest incident could also be a diversionary/defensive move for the Congress Quadcomm to ease the pressure on her. In fact in her presscon statement, she said she just wants to go back to work if the investigations end.

At this juncture of this BBM vs. Duterte conflict and everything that has transpired in public view and recorded in all media, there is a low probability that Congress and the BBM group will give her the light of day. She has crossed the Rubicon and there is no turning back. If there is a possibility of a “people power” support for VP Sarah, encouraged by her loyalty to her staff, she did not prepare for it and most likely insignificant. Davao is quite far from Metro Manila and Congress.

Congress, the BBM team, Malacañang, and relevant government offices have considered this incident a serious threat and will act accordingly. Impeachment will be an option depending on the public pulse and perception as this is a political process. Two-thirds of the Lower House may vote for it, but it also needs 2/3 of the Senate. Some senators were still moving to reinstate the deductions in the OVP budget for 2025 as late as last week, so unless these threats changed their loyalties, getting 2/3 of the senators for impeachment will be a tall order. There is also the legally-arguable issue, if a threat with a “condition precedent” is an impeachable offense, if added to the other actions/anomalies of VP Duterte.

There are at least three endgame scenarios in this conflict between the BBM and Duterte group. It will be a drawn out legal and political fight which will have a dominant winner in the May 2025 election. Whoever gets the most congressmen, governors, and senators elected in their side will be “mandando” up to the 2028 election. For sure, it will be politically, emotionally, physically, and financially costly for all the parties involved in this fight.