The very real threat of a nuclear war

The escalating war in Ukraine is already sending chills down the spine of many people, most especially those in Europe.

Shortly after US President Biden gave the greenlight for the use of US-made long-range missiles, Ukraine fired eight ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles that hit a Russian weapon arsenal in Bryansk Oblast on Tuesday.

In response to the ATACMS firing, President Vladimir Putin approved changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine that says an attack from a non-nuclear state with the backing or support by a nuclear country would be considered a joint attack – giving Russia the right to use nuclear weapons as a response.

Clearly, the war seems to be “escalating quickly and unpredictably” as New York Times’ German Lopez described it, with Ukraine also firing the UK-provided, longer-range Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia for the first time. According to the BBC, the Storm Shadow is an “Anglo-French cruise missile” with a high-explosive warhead and is called “Scalp” by the French.

The Biden administration’s decision allowing Ukraine to use the ATACMS is perceived to be in response to North Korea’s sending of thousands of soldiers to Russia. Reports say over 100,000 North Koreans may be deployed as the relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang deepens. North Korean President Kim Jong Un reportedly told troops to “go all out” – not surprising since Russia is reportedly paying each soldier $2,000 a month.

US ambassador to the UN Robert Wood had warned that North Korean forces entering Ukraine would “return in body bags,” while South Korea said it will not sit idly by and is prepared to do what it takes, including the option to directly supply weapons to Ukraine. Seoul has been providing financial and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, sending non-lethal military supplies and artillery shells indirectly through the US. But all of this could change, said South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol.

According to an article titled, “How Should Seoul Respond to North Korea’s Soldiers in Russia?” published by the United States Institute of Peace, the greatest threat to South Korea is the possibility that Russia might provide North Korea with advanced military technologies that include nuclear-powered submarine technology; high-resolution satellite imaging for improved intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities; and combat aircraft to reduce the gap with South Korea’s air superiority.

Foreign ministers from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom have also expressed tremendous concern about Russia’s “hybrid warfare” and issued a joint statement accusing Russia of “systematically attacking European security architecture.”

Last week, two fiber-optic internet cables in the Baltic Sea – one connecting Sweden and Lithuania and the other connecting Finland and Germany – were cut, with European officials suspecting Russia of sabotage and accusing it of stepping up its hybrid attacks across allied territories – although the presence of a Chinese ship in the area has also raised suspicions.

First defined by Frank Hoffman in his December 2007 paper titled “Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars,” hybrid warfare “incorporate a range of different modes of warfare” such as physical or military conflict, disinformation, cyberattacks, economic coercion and political interference to undermine or destroy a target.

Many are now looking to president-elect Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine, who had said this will be a priority of his administration. “It’s got to stop,” Trump said, lamenting the death of thousands because of the conflict that has already gone on for more than a thousand days. Trump also vowed to work in bringing peace to the Middle East.

Our friend Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security who served as deputy assistant to president-elect Trump during his first term, said ending the war needs to be “done in a way that doesn’t encourage other US adversaries to try to illegally invade their neighbor’s territory.”

The situation in Europe has raised concerns that the same thing could happen in the Indo-Pacific region with North Korea ratcheting up its nuclear threats and China’s continued aggression particularly against the Philippines.

According to a recent Foreign Affairs magazine article, “The True Aims of China’s Nuclear Buildup,” our giant neighbor has “initiated a short-of-war coercion campaign to dissolve the US alliance system in the Pacific, and its increasingly sophisticated nuclear arsenal gives it more leverage to achieve this objective without igniting a catastrophic great-power war.”

If World War 3 were to ever break out, everyone knowledgeable recognizes it would be more devastating than World War 2 and could literally spell the end of the world. Undoubtedly, technologically advanced nuclear weapons have become more lethal and whose impact will be far greater than Hiroshima.

In his speech before a Joint Meeting of the US Congress last April, former Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida – who knows it only too well being a native of Hiroshima – said he has devoted his political career to bringing about a world without nuclear weapons. During the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Ceremony last August, he talked of the human suffering caused by the atomic bomb, saying the horror of nuclear devastation must never be repeated.

As a country, the Philippines has never provoked or instigated conflicts, always trying to resolve issues through peaceful means. We also continue to reach out to allies and friends, not only the US but other like-minded nations, through bilateral engagements and even multilateral coalitions which has always been the approach taken by President Marcos Jr.

Being a nation of deep Catholic faith, we strongly believe in prayer – which to many of us can often be the more powerful weapon.

God bless our country!

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