Chicken

Humanity could be extinct in a few days. Or maybe not.

Russia’s nuclear saber rattling has never been louder than it has been. This is in response to the Biden administration lifting its ban on the use of American long-range missiles in attacking Russian territory. Everywhere there are people talking about the onset of World War III.

Faced with the possibility of losing Ukraine after Donald Trump retains power, Joe Biden lifted his ban on the use of donated American weapons against targets within Russian borders. The ban was consistent with the outgoing president’s abundance of caution and fear escalation.

Biden justified his lifting of the ban by the entry of North Korean troops in the Russian Kursk region. Months ago, guided by a puzzling strategy, Ukraine sent some of its best brigades in a wild incursion into Russian territory. The adventure proved costly. But Ukrainian units remain in control of some Russian land. Analysts believe the incursion intended grabbing Russian land to trade for occupied Ukrainian land in the event negotiations between the warring nations happen.

The bold incursion definitely failed to force Russia to relocate vital brigades from the eastern Ukrainian front and stall an offensive against exhausted Ukrainian forces. Over the past few weeks, however, Russian forces have been conducting a broad offensive that pushed back Ukraine’s defensive lines. A large force of 50,000 troops, including about 10,000 North Korean soldiers, is now massed around the Kursk region to throw the Ukrainians back across the border.

The North Korean troops have yet to be tested in full-scale battle. But their entry into the theater of war marks a significant internationalization of the conflict. North Korean participation signals what could be a broader involvement of an Asian country in a European war. Russian-North Korean partnership has been sealed, after the fact of military deployment, by the signing of the mutual defense treaty between the two nations.

Russian propaganda softens the significance of North Korean involvement by describing the conflict as one aimed at NATO forces. Putin’s mouthpieces highlighted the killing or capture of European and North American mercenaries fighting alongside Ukraine’s forces. They pin the blame for the internationalization of the conflict on NATO’s huge arms contribution to help Kiev shore up its defenses.

Russian propagandists have been flooding social media with simulations showing the impact of nuclear warhead sent to Kiev and some other European capitals. The graphic simulations are unnecessary. Everyone understands that the detonation of one of the larger warheads will inflict nuclear winter on the entire globe, leading to massive crop failures and deaths in the billions.

Biden’s decision to lift the ban on the use of US weapons on Russian territory could have serious implications on the balance of military forces. With lethal weapons such as the ATACMs, Ukraine could wreak havoc on Russia’s logistics network. The few US missiles launched the past few days, however, were successfully intercepted by Russian air defense systems.

Use of the sophisticated ATACMs inevitably brings US military presence in the conflict. The weapons system could only be targeted using American specialists working out of European bases or in observation posts close to the frontlines. Only US servicemen are allowed to operate the secret targeting technology for this system.

Responding to Biden’s lifting of the ban, Putin announced yet another revision in Russia’s doctrine covering the use of nuclear weapons, effectively lowering the threshold for their introduction.

Under the new doctrine, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state (supported by a nuclear power) if and when a mass drone strike is launched against targets within Russia’s borders. Significantly, Russia also reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of “aggression” against Belarus. Rather vaguely, the new doctrine allows Russia the use of nuclear weapons when its sovereignty is threatened with conventional weapons.

Quite a number of Western politicians have raised alarm about the onset of World War III after Putin revised his doctrine on the use of both strategic and tactical nuclear weapons – even if Moscow has been doing such revisions many times over the past few years. The red lines in previous iterations of nuclear weapons doctrine have been crossed with nary a response from Moscow.

A few diehard MAGA Republicans in Washington DC have added to the credence of Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons by proposing Biden be impeached for pushing the world to the brink of a world war. If sanity prevails, nothing will come out of this effort.

A bigger number think that Putin is playing chicken with his new threat on the use of nuclear weapons. His first impulse when he feels vulnerable is to issue threats.

In a game of chicken, the first one who blinks loses. Putin’s first target this time could be the European nations supporting Ukraine – especially after Germany has shown signs of waffling. Should enough Europeans feel their capitals are under real nuclear threat, they could put pressure on their governments to rein in support for Kiev. Putin wins each time European support weakens a notch.

Putin will have little problems with the incoming Trump II administration coming in after Jan. 20. Trump has been critical of the cost of supporting Ukraine and is not shy demanding an end to the fighting by forcing Kiev to cede territory to Russia.