On January 6, 2025, Trump will assume the presidency of the US with the political, social, and economic environment of the US and the world more complicated/complex than in his previous term as president. While he inherits a booming economy from the Biden administration, which the electorate failed to appreciate, his election promises on the tariffs on foreign goods, immigration and foreign workers will have adverse economic effects. His position on the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and his acquiescence to Putin, Xi Jingping, Kim Jong Un, and other autocrats will alter the geopolitical equation and preeminence of the US in the world power stage.
As early as this week, the enormous cost and needed resources of massive deportation of illegal immigrants was already discussed, including the use of the army. The cost/benefit analysis did not even include the medium-/long-term effects of the shortage of farm workers and other worker for physical labor that depends on migrants, and the diminishing entry of knowledge workers that advance/maintain the US technological advantage in high-tech industries, with China aggressively encroaching in these areas. The higher tariffs on foreign goods will immediately raise prices of many everyday products and capital equipment that are coming from other countries, particularly China, until such time that these products will be made in the US, which may not necessarily happen due to the intricacies of the world supply chain.
In the global geopolitical stage, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, who are currently trying their best to reshape the world order into a multi-polar dimension, are all eager to test Trump’s ability and capability. These are seasoned autocrats less accountable to their people, eager to see a diminished US strategic power and take them over. Trump’s autocratic tendencies in a democratic country like the US will be counter-productive and fodder for these authoritarian regimes. So, Trump 2.0 is an extreme test for US democracy and the survival of its institutions.
While the US federal form of government has placed significant power on the state governors and city mayors, the Republican Party has majority of both the Congress and the Senate in the last election, and Trump nominees will dominate the Supreme Court and other Federal courts. If Trump pursues his autocratic agenda and both houses of Congress assent, and challenges in the courts are defeated, the system of checks and balances in the US government will weaken and erode. These will eventually lead to diminished freedom, liberty, and human rights. The independence of the legislative and judiciary will be impaired to the extent of the push of the Trump administration and the absence of a pushback.
Going by the experience of the previous Trump administration, his illegal practices including his convictions and pending charges, there is a significant probability that good governance in the US government will take a backseat and may be in danger. Accountability and transparency and the system of moral accountability in government may/will erode and seep down to infect the whole American society and people. American morality, like in many countries, had not always been the ideal situation, and the election of Trump is just another indication of its deterioration, Government/leadership governance and religion are always the counteractions to these tendencies, but not if it promotes or sets examples of bad governance.
Aside from coopting Congress and the judiciary, other independent institutions in the US are also vulnerable, like the Federal Reserve Bank and some civil service departments. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, when asked yesterday if he will resign if Trump asks him to leave, categorically said “No”, but will leave when his term expires in May 2026 This is important as Trump has ideas to control the banking and monetary policies. As commander-in-chief, the US president is also the head of the armed forces. This will be a super-critical issue and domain as massive firepower including nuclear bombs is within the ambit of presidential power. All Americans and peace-loving people in the world will just have to pray that Trump and his advisers will be super responsible on this matter.