Harris may/will beat Trump

I am now a week in the US, even with the disruption of our MNL-LA-CLE flights caused by the CrowdStrike glitch that disrupted airline systems. LA was particularly affected by flight cancellations, hotel booking problems, and other denials of service. I’m now in Ohio and Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race and endorsement of Kamala Harris as Democrats presidential candidate really shook the political atmosphere.

Local and national TV/radio networks and all social media reported the event and the implications. Republican-leaning Fox network and the Democrat-leaning ABC network aired the actual announcement with divergent analysis/consequences. CNN had the most extensive and in-depth coverage during the week for its American audience which is abbreviated in its international editions.

The most immediate impact was the massive shift in media focus from the shooting of Trump and the debate disaster of Biden. In the previous week, Republicans were front page and hogging the headlines. The polls have been shifting to the Republicans and Trump with the possibility of getting also the Senate and congressional majority. Within a week, all changed. Biden got praises from all sectors except from the Trumpers. Democrats from the liberal left to the conservative right fused, suspending their divide to support Harris’ anointment as the Democratic Party candidate. The party raised $120 million in campaign contribution in two days, got endorsement from the Obamas, the Clintons, all Democratic senators and congressmen, the women and black coalitions, billionaire tech entrepreneurs, and celebrities like George Clooney, Jenifer Aniston, Pink, Olivia Rodrigo, and others.

The Republican election strategy which assumed that Biden was the opponent was destabilized, unable to pivot to attacking Harris. Four days after Biden’s announcement, Trump and running mate Vance were still attacking Biden. By Wednesday this shifted to personal attack and insults against Harris as if testing what will work. Chinese trolls were observed to have joined the criticism while Russia was silent.

Harris’ counter-attack was to tell the National Teachers Association that as former San Francisco city prosecutor and California district attorney she knows how to handle a felon like Trump and will beat him in the election. One Democrat Senator said now there is only one remaining old presidential candidate who is rambling and drifting, and that’s Trump.

The opinion polls before Biden’s withdrawal showed that Harris was 2% behind Trump. Recent polls from Wednesday to Friday this week, showed them to be tied. Momentum is now on Harris’ side, which if sustained will have her ahead of Trump after her official nomination in the August Democratic convention. Trump will likely hold his core followers which is some 30% of the voters, but he could lose the independents which are the swing votes. Gen X and Gen Z voters, who have a turnout of less than 40%, and leans to Democrats, and the black coalition votes may even affect the electoral college votes that Harris will win both the electoral and popular votes.

Over and above the credentials of Harris as a lawyer, prosecutor, senator, and vice president, the existential issue of Democracy dying with a Trump presidency is starting to bite. The abortion and immigration issues will also take center stage and could cancel each other together with the economic issues. These will be clearer in the coming presidential candidates’ debate which the Trump camp initially accepted but is now hesitating. This is a bad move so there will most likely be a debate, as Harris again dared Trump to show up.

These recent events can only happen in a democratic political system like in the US It may seem chaotic and divisive, but this is the way of a democratic system, difficult but free and expresses the will of the people. This couldn’t happen in Russia, China, Mynmar, Venezuela, or any other autocratic system of government.