America's 2024 elections and the impact on us

Well, whether we enjoy or abhor it, the future of the Philippines is closely intertwined with that of the US. Our politics, our economy, our security largely depend on American policies and actions in the Asia-Pacific Basin. There are millions of Filipinos in America sending billions of dollars to us, and here in our country, trillions of US dollars have been invested not only in trade and commerce but also for our own security and national defense. These investments provide jobs and help infuse our economy with foreign exchange.

The Spanish colonizers controlled our country from Magellan in 1521 to the Treaty of Paris in 1898. Spain's greatest gift to us is our Christian faith mixed with our culture of fiestas and extravaganzas. But America gave us education, which Spain denied us for 377 years. America taught us democracy, freedom and liberty, which Spain denied us for more than three and a half centuries. The US political control over the Philippines from 1900 to 1946 has brought many far-reaching impact on our political, social and economic life. Of course, America also benefitted immensely from the US-Philippine relations but based on all measures of costs and benefits, the US is till much better than both Spain and Japan.

The upcoming elections in the US shall definitely generate tremendous consequence to our politics, national security and the economy.

Many American investors are now pondering deeply on the impact of how and to what extent either a Biden win or a Trump victory would entail to their investment portfolios in the Philippines and in the whole Asia including China, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, as well as in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. Regardless of their political leanings, mainstream American investors are convinced that the results of the US elections in November this year will have bigger impact on taxes, central bank policies, wages, income, retirement plans, healthcare and in the overall market movements and business results.

Our research results indicate that a Trump victory entails a chilling effect on investors in addition to general pessimism regarding the election's impact on retirement prospects. Many investors fear the impact of new policy and opposing party rule on the U.S. economy. Nearly one in three (32%) investors believe the economy will plunge into a recession within 12 months if the political party with which they least align gains more power in the 2024 federal elections. Roughly the same percentage (31%) believe the party they least align with gaining more power in office will negatively impact their future finances, and 31% believe their taxes will increase within 12 months. These projections, of course, shall impact on Filipinos both here and those permanently residing in America.

Our source from Newswire based in Columbus, Ohio has projected a scenario relative the upcoming US presidential polls. It projects that Republicans tend to brace for election results more than their Democrat counterparts. More than two thirds (68%) of Republican investors believe the outcome of a presidential election will have a direct, immediate and lasting impact on the performance of the stock market, compared to 57% of Democratic investors. Independent investors are the least concerned with election results; fewer than half (40%) feel the results of next year's election will have a bigger impact on their retirement plans and portfolios than market volatility – the lowest of the three primary political demographic groups.

Based on trends in the past and in the present, Republicans do favor more the businessmen over the working class. Their policies are centered on the old Hamiltonian principles of a strong centralized but smaller government, with less taxes for business and less social benefits for the workers and the families. The contrast is provided by the Jeffersonian pro-people, pro human rights and pro-labor policies, as well as large budgets for health care, housing, education and social welfare for the old, the inform and the marginalized sectors. That is why American voters have clear choices. Contrast that to our own elections where choices are determined by money, maneuvers and magic machines.

We should all watch the US presidential polls come November and the many electoral exercises like primaries, conventions and campaigns prior to the election day. Whether we like it or not, among all ASEAN member states, and among all Asian countries, the Philippines has the biggest stakes in the US November polls. For as the hackneyed adage says: Whenever America sneezes, the Philippines gets a flu. That's the long and the short of it.