Perfect shield for an Ayungin resupply run

The Philippine STAR reported on Monday that the United States, Japan, and Australia will be conducting joint naval exercises this week in the South China Sea. This should make for a perfect shield behind which the Philippines can make a successful resupply run to Ayungin Shoal where a motley detachment of Filipino Marines are deployed on a grounded ship.

I would be surprised, if not disappointed, if the Philippines does not seize this opportunity for an unhampered mission. I say unhampered because I do not think China will challenge the presence of the three allied navies by continuing with its harassment of Philippine resupply runs to Ayungin, the latest of which was only last August 5.

The US, Japan, and Australia will provide amphibious assault ships for the exercises: The USS America, the JS Izumo, and the HMAS Canberra. The STAR, however, erred in describing the USS America as an aircraft carrier. The "aircraft carrier" USS America (CV-66) is no more. It was scuttled in 2005 after 30 years of service.

What is taking part in the joint exercises is the fourth US Navy ship to be named after the country, the USS America (LHA-6), an "amphibious attack ship." While LHA-6 may technically be an aircraft carrier as it does carry fixed-wing aircraft in addition to helicopters, its designation is as an amphibious assault ship. It helps to avoid confusion with CV-66.

Anyway, it would be nail-bitingly interesting to see how China would take the joint exercises, especially if the Philippines does attempt to make a resupply run to Ayungin under such a powerful cover. My guess is that China will shadow and hover, perhaps even with calculated risky maneuvers, but will not try to interfere or do anything foolish.

If the US, Japan, Australia, and other allies can make such joint exercises a regular activity, and the Philippines can take advantage of the security mantle such activities provide, I think that would be the most cost-effective way of keeping the status quo instead of bearing with ever-escalating tensions that can only lead to mistakes and possibly war.

China can of course bristle every time such exercises are conducted but superior force and the specter of annihilation is always the most effective deterrent against aggression. The bottom line is that China can always swallow its pride and console itself with the fact that the allies are merely confining themselves to "freedom of navigation" activities.

As to the Philippines getting away with it, China will not lose sleep allowing a few supplies to slip through to the Philippine marines who are more helpless against the elements than they can ever be against an enemy force that is not impervious to a hail of bullets. To China, the real thorn in its side is Taiwan, not Ayungin.

The Philippines is not a party to this week's allied naval exercises. AFP chief General Romeo Brawner Jr. said the military was not informed of the joint exercises. That seems rather odd to me. I think there is another reason. The allies do not want to push the envelope by having the Philippines participate right after the wounds of August 5.

If the Philippines is limited to conducting a resupply run to a few "stranded" Marines, it is something it has been doing like forever. It is not a bunny out of a hat. Again, China will bristle but it is not something to really lose sleep over. These and similar future exercises will be more of a stabilizer than a tension builder by just being predictable.