The US, China, Russia, India, and the Philippines

On World Population Day last Monday, the United Nations reported that by 2023, or next year, India will overtake China as the world's most populous country. The latest figures halfway through 2022 had both countries dealing with roughly 1.4 billion people each. The UN projects the world population to hit 8 billion by mid-November this year and 8.5 billion by 2030.

It is not clear what India's surpassing China's population will mean to the often-chilly relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. One thing is certain, though. It is bound to have an effect. When it does, China will need to start paying closer attention to its rival to the west, even as it needs to heighten vigilance in the east. The Pacific to the east is where the US lurks, hoping to establish a foothold near China's doorstep.

The US defense posture has always been to start guarding against attack right at the doorstep of the enemy, not when the enemy is about to kick in its door. This strategy was set in motion after World War II following the bad experience of having to compete with Russia in carving out spheres of influence out of liberated Europe. It spilled over into the Cold War and on to its present manifestation in Ukraine.

You may damn Putin for pulling the trigger, but it was the US that manipulated his finger toward the trigger. What do you suppose Vladimir ought to have done, roll over on his back as the US noose, through various surrogates, inexorably tightened around his neck? No self-respecting leader would do that, much less a Russian bear. An animal backed into a corner is a most dangerous creature indeed.

The greatest miscalculation of Putin was that while the US was clearly baiting him into a fight, the US itself was unwilling to be directly involved, preferring to arm its surrogates to do the fighting, or to fight by way of economic sanctions. Either way, poor Russia takes a hit at its own expense. Of course the larger world suffers collateral damage, but what the heck does the US care?

The US is doing the same thing to China, while the unthinking Philippines eggs it on, not realizing that if the US succeeds in sufficiently provoking China, we could end up as this region's version of Ukraine. It is a mistake to let our hate of China influence our decisions. To be sure, we hate being bullied by our large neighbor. But to be guided in our actions we need to understand why we have this situation with China.

China is not bullying us just for the heck of it. China is bullying us because it thinks it owns the South China Sea and we are unwanted intruders. As a rival claimant, we do not recognize such claim and reasoning. But those are the facts. We cannot change the fact that, right or wrong, China has such claims and that we probably would be doing exactly the same had we been the superpower and China the wimp.

China and India have issues on their common borders. The Philippines and China have competing claims. Russia is surrounded by US bases and military alliances. It is the US that is intruding into the many areas it has no direct business being in. The US is too far away to have any business in Ukraine or in the South China Sea except, in the case of the latter, the tenuous claim to freedom of navigation.

The reason why it is so easy for the US to meddle in the affairs of other countries is because it has no real sense of country. The US is a country of immigrants. The real and original Americans were the various Indian tribes (euphemistically called Native Americans for political correctness) either annihilated or driven to reservations or to Canada by the new settlers, mostly Europeans.