Only fools believe in poll surveys
If majority of Filipinos believe the results of Pulse Asia and Social Weather Station, I am one of the non-conformists. It is my firm determination that these surveys are conditioning the minds of voters and are wittingly or unwittingly being used as vehicles to exacerbate their propensity to be swayed by the bandwagon mentality. These surveys are also highly suspicious because they are being contracted, sponsored, and paid for by candidates. Their objectivity is not beyond reproach. Surveys are forms of oblique campaigning for the leading candidates based on popularity, not merits and qualifications.
With due respect, I also do not believe in the non-partisanship of SWS. I agree with Boo Chanco, who writes for The Philippine STAR (he was my corporate colleague in PNOC where I worked as senior labor attorney and HR director) that Dr. Mahar Mangahas, with his outstanding academic credentials, deserves presumption of objectivity. But he is the uncle of Grace Poe and those who are discerning enough to really know Filipino culture would say blood is thicker than academic credentials. Poe always tops SWS surveys and, of course, their surveys are vindicated by poll results. But we could also say poll results are largely influenced by mind conditioning.
I also do not believe the predictions and survey results of Pulse Asia before, especially during the yellow years, because one of its owners is the cousin of former President Noynoy Aquino. If these guys are really open and transparent, why are they not disclosing these conflicts of interest? They are trying to condition the minds of the masses. I strongly believe Comelec should gag them in the same spirit and rationale that litigants and lawyers cannot issue public statements on the possible or probable outcomes of pending litigation. This is called the principle of “sub judice.” These outfits make a lot of money from candidates and their patrons, they should also declare these to Comelec and BIR.
And, talking of surveys, these surveys conducted by different outfits hired by ABS-CBN and GMA to drumbeat their alleged supremacy in patronage is confusing. Using Kantar Media, ABS-CBN said they won over GMA with 45% audience preference, with GMA only having 30%. On the other hand, GMA, through the Nielsen TV Audience Measurement, claims they have 37.8% with ABS-CBN at 35.9%.
I am basically a Kapamilya but it would seem GMA's survey appears more credible. ABS-CBN's survey seems to violate the principle of statistical improbability.
Chanco wrote that SWS allegedly signed up Bong Go, Cynthia Villar, Bong Revilla, and the LP as survey clients. Of course, these candidates must have paid it millions. Now, assuming Chanco's view is true, tell me, dear readers, if that is not a case of conflict of interests? How then can we believe these polls surveys?
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