It is an irony that whilst both Manuel Araneta Roxas II and Gilberto Cojuangco Teodoro are both good men, well-educated, refined, cultured, both belonging to "buena familia," rich and highly-influential families. And yet, history will record these two fine gentlemen as having lost both their respective presidential bids. The fate of Gibo has been sealed and nothing can ever change that unfortunate event in our election history. It may be too early on the other hand to make a dire prediction against Secretary Mar. But if there is no earthshaking event, and the trend continues, the ball game will be between Vice President Jejomar Binay and Mayor Rodrigo Duterte. Whether Senator Grace Poe will be disqualified or not by the Supreme Court, she has lost the confidence of many voters for having supposedly lied on her citizenship and residence in filing her senatorial certificate of candidacy. Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago is, with due respect, not a serious candidate this time. Ambassador Roy Seneres is the most pro-poor but he may never win.
There is no question that Secretary Mar is a man of competence, although many have questioned his "teka teka" stigma of indecisiveness. But as compared to Grace, Mar has more experience in executive decision-making. He has had more than enough years in various capacities and in such agencies as in the Department of Trade and Industry and Department of Transportation and Communications, and lately in the very critically strategic agency, the Department of Interior and Local Government. These three agencies have prepared Mar in the area of economics, in infrastructures, and in local governance, and public administration. Mayor Duterte has had no national exposure. He has to convince people that his track records in Davao can be replicated nationwide. So is that of Vice President Binay, whose only turf was Makati. Grace was just a short-time censors chief, a very inconsequential office.
But why is Mar not getting high scores in poll surveys? What is wrong with him? He was exceedingly successful in his past senatorial bid, with his "Mr Palengke" moniker. Today, his campaign ads cannot fly. His messages do not resonate. He is not connecting with the masses, not even with the A and B sectors who may go for Duterte. What's going wrong with his campaign? Is it the medium or is it the message. I would say, with all due respect to the President, an honorable man himself, that the most essential reason why Mar Roxas will not win is because of no other than President Noynoy Aquino himself. While honest and unimpeachable in his character, the issue against his government (not personally against himself) is incompetence.
In the same manner that Gibo Teodoro lost because of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, Mar Roxas is likely to lose the 2016 polls because of PNoy. The more he repeats that cursed mantra of Daang Matuwid, the more he loses votes. We are indeed sorry to have to say that. Of course, the issue against GMA was allegedly a shady circumstance even with competence. The issue against PNoy is lack of competence even with unquestionable integrity. And so, both Gibo and Mar will go down in history as victims of wrong patrons, not really because they have better opponents, but largely because they both had a "bad" incumbent endorser. The only incumbent endorser who succeeded was President Cory. Both FVR, Erap, and GMA failed in their endorsements. PNoy is most likely to follow.
The reason why Gibo was rejected was not because PNoy was the better cousin. Gibo, with all due respect, was a bar topnotcher, a well-prepared decision-maker, while PNoy has had a mediocre records in both the Lower House and the Senate. Gibo was rejected because the people feared that his victory would mean the perpetuation of the many GMA questionable decisions, actions, policies, and even appointments and transactions. The people rejected Gibo, with much regret, because the people rejected GMA. Therefore, it follows that Mar shall lose because the people does not want to continue a government of incompetence and indecisiveness, of compartmentalized justice, of refusal to implement the Agrarian Reform in Hacienda Luisita and the impeachment of a Chief Justice who dared to order the full and genuine distribution of the hacienda in Tarlac.
Therefore, the more Mar repeats his mantra of "Ituloy ang Daang Matuwid," the more he is alienating himself from the people. More of the same is not what the country needs. That is why Digong Duterte's campaign, although less funded, is more successful because his mantra is reforms, change, and genuine change.