Is Duterte running a game changer?

Last week, Duterte announced that he is running for president, so the 10 percent chance we gave of his running for president happened, validating our contention that events and outcomes are always a matter of probability and cannot be predicted with certainty. That he will eventually be able to run, with the legal and other obstacles resolved, has a higher probability of 50 percent, but the probability of his winning and becoming President is less. Is his joining the presidential race at this time, less than six months away a "game changer"?

The last Pulse Asia poll ranking, which was done without Duterte yet in the list of choices, showed that Poe was in the 36 percent, then Binay and Roxas in the 24 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Relating these to the three previous poll rankings, it shows that the rankings of Roxas and Binay have stabilized in the low 20's, while Poe revived her rising trajectory. This is explainable by the extensive media exposure of Poe in relation to the disqualification cases filed on her eligibility to ran for president, and even to sit as a senator.

The "foundling issue," the DNA test and all the controversies relating to her citizenship really put her in the news. Not only did these give her good free advertising and publicity, it also endeared him to the underdog mentality of some Filipinos. Extending the trend lines of Poe, Roxas, and Binay using the last poll ranking surveys, will show that Poe, at this point, (six months before the election) is the leading candidate and would win the election if it was held at that time. As we had posited in an earlier column, it is not just the percentage at that point of time, but the rate of increase from point to point.  The slope, the rise over the run, is also very important as it will influence the stability of the ranking. The impressive slope of Roxas' rise in prior surveys that put him in a statistical tie with Poe and Binay two months ago, did not continue. Binay's percentages did not also move, so it was Poe who benefitted from all the political noise of the last two months.

Duterte has now declared that he is running for president three times in the last three days, and officially filed his certificate of candidacy in November 27, 2015, so he is committed and there is no more wavering. The only thing that can stop him is the Comelec and the Supreme Court preventing him to run for legal reasons. There is a 30 percent probability that the Comelec and the Court will disallow him to run, risking a public opinion backlash from his supporters. In a hastily released Metro Manila poll survey, Duterte came out ahead of Poe, Roxas, and Binay. This was a very limited survey with a very few samples so we cannot connect this to the earlier trend lines. Until we get the next nationwide poll surveys, my suspicion is that Duterte's percentages will also be in the 20 percent to 25 percent range putting him in a statistical tie with the other three candidates. Now that he is a declared candidate, there will be more scrutiny on Duterte as a person, a public official, his intellect, his platform or program of government, his ideology. How he comes out under close scrutiny will determine his poll ratings in the coming months and his eventual election numbers.

Duterte will draw voters from the three other candidates, but it is likely that he will draw more votes away from Poe and Binay than from Roxas. From a socio-economic perspective, the Poe and Binay C,D and E market are also the main market of Duterte. Geographic analysis will also show that Mindanao and Central Visayas will tend to favor Duterte, and these are also the areas that Poe and Binay had major support. Roxas support on the other hand is more disperse in terms of geography and socio-economic class, and is anchored on business people and solid party machinery. A Roxas presidency is perceived as good for business and a continuation of the Aquino presidency. A well run political machinery, which means the incumbent governors, mayors and congressmen will deliver at least 20 percent of the votes. When decades ago, Ramon Mitra and Jose De Venecia lost their presidential bids, they still got more than 20 percent of the votes.

In current parlance, a "game changer" happens when a newly introduced element or factor changes an existing situation or activity in a significant way. In a more emphatic way, it is when something happens which changes even the way the game is played.

Duterte's running, is a game changer in the first definition; it altered the game in a significant way but not the way the game is played.

If Duterte will be allowed to run in spite of the legal issues, it means that the political will of the people prevailed over the legal issues. It will also pave the way for Poe to be allowed to run since the Senate Electoral Tribunal decision will prevail over any legal ruling. The Courts will have to vow to public clamor and opinion and let the election decide the issue. We will then have a four-way contest for the presidency in the coming May election, and in a four-way close contest, the candidate with 30 percent of the votes will win, and all four are within striking distance.

May the best man or woman win for the sake of God and country.