Noynoy Aquino's approval ratings have gone up back to 59 in the third quarter, after having sunk to a record low of 29 in the second. So, is such a dramatic rebound possible? Can one whose numbers have been steadily diving make a leap of 30 percentage points, even higher than the last recorded low? I really do not know. Maybe yes and maybe no. But the fact that the survey was made by SWS, whose poll results have mostly favored Noynoy, gives room enough for valid doubt.
Nothing has happened by way of positive development that can be taken into account to merit the huge rebound. In reaction, even Noynoy lacked the enthusiasm to sound convincing. He ticked off better wages, more jobs and lower prices as possible reasons for his recovery. But he did not go into specifics and just rattled off those three generic factors as if they were self-explanatory.
But does Noynoy even know what he is talking about? Does he even bother to validate on the ground what he is advised by his advisers to tell the nation? What better wages is he talking about? He does not have to look far to realize he has just told a bare-faced lie. Even workers in his own turf -- the government -- are not happy with their wages.
Public schools teachers are protesting and threatening to go on mass leave because of low wages. The illegal drug trade is rampant even inside the National Penitentiary because the complicity of jailguards can be bought owing to low wages. Even the salary of his favorite police chief is so low he has to accept donations from friends and "buy" cars at discounts even bigger than the price tag. And Noynoy boasts of better wages? Bah, humbug!
And what about more jobs? Doesn't he know that one out of every 10 Filipinos has sacrificed the comfort of home, the nearness of loved ones and the familiarity of country just to find work abroad? Is he not aware that for nurses to work and gain experience, they even have to pay for the "privilege" of doing volunteer work in hospitals?
And why would he claim low prices when they have not stopped climbing ever since? Prices have never been known to drop. Even prices of petroleum products that have seemingly been dropping have not realistically dropped since they have not reached the true levels of their real worth, something that will never happen if price cuts do not correspond to previous increases. Even prices of cigarettes, one of the few things Noynoy has real and unassailable expertise, are higher than ever.
So, if Noynoy has to lie about the reasons for the dramatic rebound in his numbers, the probability is that the rebound is, at best, artificial, or worse, that it is baseless and therefore impossible. Now, if the rebound is impossible, then the reverse has got to be true. And for that, there is no dearth of factors why Noynoy should in fact be nosediving instead of soaring.
His getting chummy with Vice President Jejomar Binay, currently buffeted by allegations of corruption, is one. His refusal to fire PNP chief Alan Purisima, or at least compel him to explain his questionable dealings and acquisitions, is another. Then there is the Yolanda rehabilitation fiasco highlighted by his intentional snub of Tacloban.
There is no way Noynoy can soar to the heights that SWS said he soared given these negative factors unless something happened to clear a path through the congested pier. What that path is, I can only surmise. What I can say, though, is that whether I believe the truth of the numbers or not, it is simply too hard to pin those numbers down on solid fact.
Many people do not believe in surveys. Others believe only those whose numbers they want to believe. But I have a better idea about how to ascertain Noynoy's true approval ratings away from the ambit and influence of survey companies. And it is by way of something that Noynoy himself once tried to spontaneously apply but quickly and wisely aborted.
My better idea is this: Noynoy should issue a call again, as he once did (but quickly explained away as not what he truly meant), for those who approve of him to wear those yellow ribbons that manifest unquestioning loyalty to his cause, whatever it is. If Noynoy's numbers are really as high as the SWS poll suggests, then it should be easy to validate the results by the number of yellow ribbons we see on people's breasts.
It should not be hard for those who approve of Noynoy to acquire those yellow ribbons to manifest such approval. After all, these people should be enjoying the fruits and benefits of more jobs, better wages, and lower prices. If these people have jobs and have better wages, it should not be hard for them to afford the low prices of yellow ribbons.
I insist on yellow ribbons because other wearables like shirts, blouses or caps may not necessarily indicate approval for Noynoy but merely manifest a color preferance that has nothing to do with political association. Yellow ribbons may be worn on the breast or as stickers on vehicles. If Noynoy truly wants to hear it from his bosses, he should make the call to mobilize his yellow army again. Only then can the survey results be validated or repudiated.