EDITORIAL - More useful and relevant forecasts needed from Pagasa

A number of fastcraft and smaller vessels serving routes between Cebu and other parts of the Visayas were forced to cancel their trips last Friday, resulting in the stranding of hundreds of passengers in all of the affected ports. Was there a storm that forced the cancellation? No, there wasn't, said the Pagasa. What there was was a tropical convergence zone that affected weather conditions in the Visayas and Mindanao.

And because there was no storm, the Pagasa issued only its regular weather situationers -- cloudy skies and light to moderate rainshowers. So, should the Pagasa be blamed for the cancellations? Of course not. It issued only that which it was supposed to issue under the circumstances. Intertropical convergence zone? So that means only cloudy skies and light to moderate rains. No problem.

The problem is, even if Pagasa was correct in its weather projections, it did not go the extra mile. It did not bother to use its brains. Had it taken the time to think, it would have realized that this country is an island country and that the primary mode of transportation between the islands is by seacraft. It did not take its projections a step further by saying that under the conditions it projected, huge waves might be expected. Had it done so, few, if any, would have been stranded.

Pagasa limits itself to being too technical. It is no different from that other agency called Phivolcs which, in the February 2012 earthquake that occurred between Negros and Cebu, promptly issued a tsunami alert for the simple reason that the quake struck under the sea at 6.5 magnitude. It did not bother to think that the Tañon Strait between Negros and Cebu is too narrow a body of water to generate a tsunami.

Just because the conditions were right -- below the sea and 6.5 magnitude -- does not necessarily mean the conditions would bring about the consequences it feared. You don't have to be a seismologist to figure out that one. All it needs is a little common sense, the same common sense that dictates it would be more worthwhile for Pagasa to give more importance to sea conditions than whether the sky is cloudy or not.

You don't need the Pagasa to know whether the sky is cloudy or not. All you have to do is look up the sky. And you don't need the Pagasa to determine whether rains will be light to moderate. When the rains fall, you will find out if its light or not. But everybody who needs to travel by boat needs to know from the Pagasa whether or not his life might be in danger or not.

This is not to ask the Pagasa to stop what it is currently doing. This is to ask Pagasa to go beyond what it is currently doing. It should give forecasts about sea conditions -- whether seas will be rough or not, whether waves will be huge or not -- the important and relevance they deserve, over and above the usual cloudy skies and light to moderate rains. Come to think of it, sea conditions are far more important than what time the sun rises or sets or whether the moon is round.