Having more babies

When we were in Singapore more than a couple of weeks ago, and during lag times when we are riding a bus to our next destination, the small talk with our guide and coordinator invariably drifts to making more babies.  No, it was not like talking about sex or anything, although a few jokes always come their way in between.  And it was not anything as grand and macroeconomic as population growth rates either, though it does lead to that.  It was simply about making more babies, or rather, why this is not happening more often.

I am sure many of you know about the one-child policy of mainland China, or more correctly, the People's Republic of China.  With a population of 1.3 billion, one can understand the concern and the need for such kind of policy.  But in China, years ago, such policy needed to be enforced.  For many of the western or developed countries (oftentimes taken as synonymous), no policy is necessary.  It seems socio-economics dictates the restraint in the production of babies, though not necessarily the process.

I first learned this first hand from a friend “Mui,” who was a schoolmate at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) in Bangkok, three decades ago.  I asked her whether she was going to proceed to get a doctorate degree after finishing Master's, or whether she's going home to Singapore, work, and start a family.  She said, yes, she's going home after graduation and work in Singapore, but no, she's not going to get married … and after a few years, she might proceed to post-graduate studies.  She said many professionals in Singapore prefer to remain single and work their way up the corporate ladder before ever thinking of marriage and family.

This was 30 years ago.  Kim, one of our workshop coordinator, confirmed in between bus stops, that indeed, their country is coping with a stagnant population starting to shrink.  It may not be so much a problem of the Chinese 1.3 billion people but for a nation with only 4 or 5 million, it's a real issue indeed.  Most western and advanced countries have declining population.  Well, maybe it’s not that obvious if you look at population figures but it is when you look at the fertility (birth per woman) rate, and taking into account that the natural replenishment rate is roughly 2.1 children born per woman.

Simply put, if the fertility is 2.1, the population is naturally replenished.  Anything over that and the population rises; if you have a lower rate, the population starts to decline.  The Philippines has a fertility rate of 3.19 (estimated for 2011), resulting in a population growth rate of 2.04%.  This is just one of the many reasons for the Reproductive Health (RH) law, but a justifiable one indeed.  Japan has a fertility of 1.39 with a population growth rate of -1.5%.  If this rate continues, Japan's population will shrink to 33 million in 2100, and 7.3 million in 2200.

This is the reason why, the third child policy is gaining popularity in many of these shrinking countries.  And since declining fertility rates always comes with increased literacy and socio-economic status, developed countries are always short of laborers since most would prefer white-collar jobs.  This results to a reluctant acceptance of migrant workers and laborers to propel the robust construction industry.  A peculiar resultant condition, one which is very dangerous is the decline in the number of citizens joining their defence and security forces.  This is probably the reason why there is conscription in many of these countries.

What is a third-child policy?  Simply put, couples are enticed to have more babies, preferably with a third or fourth child, through exciting benefits!  In Singapore, this is in two forms – a cash gift (yes, a cash gift!), and a continuing child development account.  You will get a cash gift of up to $6,000 each for your 1st and 2nd child and $8,000 each for your 3rd and 4th child.  For the child development account, you are given an equivalent for any money you save in the account.  (Look this up at babybonus.gov.sg).   

Similar schemes are also offered in many European countries, including paid leave of absence from work from 3 to 6 months!  For both mom and dad.  The funny thing is, still, there are not that many takers.  I guess this is the effect of over development.  If this is given in the Philippines, we would get an instant baby boom!  But don't get this wrong – we still need to contain our fertility and population growth rates.  The problems are different, and so are the solutions.