PAGASA warns of rising temperatures

CEBU, Philippines — As the Philippines transitions into the dry hot season, temperatures are expected to rise, bringing above-normal heat conditions, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Visayas.

PAGASA Visayas weather specialist Jhomer Esclarino said that the northeast monsoon, or “Amihan,” is expected to weaken and eventually dissipate within the next week, officially marking the onset of the dry season, commonly referred to as summer.

With this shift, the heat index in the region is expected to climb. The heat index, also known as the "apparent temperature" or "damang init" in Tagalog, factors in both air temperature and humidity to determine the actual temperature felt by the human body.

Historically, Cebu recorded its highest temperature at 37 degrees Celsius, while the most extreme heat index was 51 degrees Celsius on April 23, 2017—falling under the danger level.

For March 2025, amid ongoing La Niña conditions, PAGASA Visayas has already recorded a maximum heat index of 40 degrees Celsius, classified as “extreme caution.”

According to Esclarino, temperatures could further climb within the month.

“Sa Cebu, expected nato diri sa April naay 36 to 42 degrees Celsius… then sa May mas motaas ang heat index which is 37 to 44 degrees Celsius,” said Esclarino.

Should the heat index exceed 41 degrees Celsius, it will enter the “danger” category, where temperatures between 42 and 51 degrees Celsius significantly increase the risk of heat-related illnesses.

Last year, Cebu recorded its highest heat index at 43 degrees Celsius on May 17. This year, projections indicate similar, if not slightly higher, temperatures.

PAGASA forecasts that the country is transitioning into an ENSO-neutral phase, with a 60% probability of this shift occurring between March and May 2025, increasing to 70% for April to June.

This means neither El Niño nor La Niña is expected to develop during this period. However, despite the absence of El Niño, PAGASA warns that slightly above-average temperatures will persist due to the dry hot season.

Esclarino pointed out that rapid urban development has significantly contributed to rising temperatures.

“Naay mga publish paper or research paper nga nag-support nga urbanization causes an increase in the land surface temperature or gitawag nga urban heat index,” he explained.

To combat this, Esclarino recommended urban planning strategies such as green roofs, tree planting, and expanding green spaces to help lower surface temperatures.

Despite the extreme heat, PAGASA noted that short-duration rain showers and thunderstorms will intermittently occur, providing temporary relief.

For March and April, the agency predicts a low probability of tropical cyclone formation, estimating the likelihood at zero to one cyclone.

With the 2025 national and local elections set for May, voters and election workers are urged to take precautions against extreme heat exposure. As May is expected to be the hottest month of the year, those waiting in long lines at polling stations should take necessary steps to avoid heat exhaustion.

Both PAGASA and the Department of Health (DOH) have advised the public to stay hydrated by drinking plenty of water while avoiding dehydrating beverages such as coffee, tea, soda, and alcohol.

Wearing light-colored and breathable clothing and avoiding outdoor activities during peak heat hours—typically from 10 AM to 4 PM—can also help prevent heat-related illnesses.

Over the past 30 years, the Philippines has experienced an average temperature increase of 0.02 degrees Celsius per year. Globally, 2024 recorded an average temperature increase of 1.55 degrees Celsius—significantly higher than levels observed in the 1850s and 1900s. — (FREEMAN)