Asia pivot: This time with feeling!

Barack Obama’s Asia pivot was a dud, as America was too preoccupied with Afghanistan and other Middle Eastern hotspots. That gave China time to build its military capabilities and its alliances with nations big and small in the Asia-Pacific.

Now, the United States may finally manage an honest-to-goodness Asia pivot as Trump’s new Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, takes office. But China is now more formidable than it ever was.

Known as a China hawk, Rubio is well-informed on China-related issues, having written thoughtful articles on China recently. His appointment will also cause some awkward moments for Beijing, which must now figure out how to lift the ban it has imposed on Rubio because of his public views on Xinjiang and Hong Kong.

It isn’t just Rubio. The International Centre for Defense and Security (ICDS) noted that Trump advisors, even during the campaign, have stressed that the geopolitical threat they would rather focus on is China.

An article written by former Trump National Security Advisor Robert C. O’Brien argued that, “The navy should also move one of its aircraft carriers from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and the Pentagon should consider deploying the entire Marine Corps to the Pacific, relieving it in particular of missions in the Middle East and North Africa.”

ICDS further observed, “It is clear that foreign policy advisors in Trump’s orbit view China as the main threat to US interests. This is corroborated by Trump’s focus on China taking advantage of the US in trade and his statements that the US must increase capabilities in the Pacific while reducing overall force, thereby suggesting that the US will move capabilities from the European front to Asia.”

Ironically, ICDS concluded, US disengagement in Ukraine is likely to benefit China, as it would set the geopolitical groundwork for Beijing to expand its aggression in the South China Sea.

Chinese aggression is exactly what Rubio has been warning about. Rubio has argued that China is “far more dangerous” than the former Soviet Union because, unlike the USSR, China is now a near-peer in industry.

“They have leverage over our economy. They have influence over our society. They have an army of unpaid lobbyists here in Washington,” Rubio said in a 2023 Senate speech.

Rubio accused US big businesses of contributing to China’s rapid rise because of their greed, which the CCP has capitalized on by stealing trade secrets and exporting authoritarianism globally.

“Communist China is not, and will never be, a friend to democratic nations,” Rubio wrote on X, formerly Twitter, in August.

Last year, Rubio wrote an article titled “Why the Philippines Matter to America.” He fears that the Philippines may actually be the next flashpoint due to Chinese aggression.

And, he said, “There is no need for the Philippines to stand alone against China. Other Indo-Pacific nations also suffer from Beijing’s bullying, and if they band together, the Communist Party may become convinced that the costs of its power grab exceed its potential benefits…

“A united front in the Indo-Pacific, however, will not coalesce without firm US support. We should provide that support, not because we want to get mixed up in far-flung controversies, but because deterring Beijing is the best way to keep this far-flung controversy from impacting our way of life.”

Rubio continued: “Beijing has begun to claim vast sections of the South China Sea, which is bordered by China and the Philippines, as well as Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam. This territory is strategically located and resource-rich. It boasts rare earth minerals, 11 billion barrels of oil, 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 10 percent of the world’s fish catch and $3 billion in annual ship-borne trade.

“In 2016, the United Nations rejected China’s claim to the Philippines’ historically recognized territory in the South China Sea. But Beijing refuses to accept that ruling. Chinese ships, many of which have support from either the Chinese Coast Guard, the Chinese Maritime Militia, or the People’s Liberation Army Navy, are currently harassing Filipinos in their own territory to bully them into accepting Beijing’s decree, rather than international law.

“This year, the Philippines’ president appointed a new military chief who pledged to protect the nation’s sovereignty ‘at all costs.’ It’s an understandable reaction to what many Filipinos view as an existential threat. But Americans should also be concerned with Chinese aggression in the South China Sea.”

In the face of looming isolationism within the Trump circle, Rubio has made a strong point that America’s economic and national security interests are at risk from what happens an ocean away.

“The Chinese Communist Party has spent the last two decades stealing American jobs and technology. In recent years, it has allowed Chinese drug traffickers to flood our cities with fentanyl. Now, Beijing is looking to hijack important trade routes and seize natural resources. This is a genuine conflict, even if it is not armed––and it is one with serious implications for the United States.

“Simply put, we don’t want a totalitarian regime that hates the United States to gain exclusive access to huge stores of rare earth minerals, energy, seafood, and trade in Asia. In addition, we don’t want to lose access to the Philippines, which plays a crucial role in the international economy… Our ability to maintain great power status would be severely diminished were they to fall under communist control.”

So, there it is. Iron-clad guarantees may mean something after all because they need us too. But who really knows how Trump will react once Xi Jinping invites him to Beijing and pampers his needy ego with a royal red-carpet treatment. They may end up writing love letters to each other too.

We should try to get as much military equipment and training as we can as quickly as possible. In the end, we can only depend on ourselves.

Boo Chanco’s email address is [email protected]. Follow him on X @boochanco