Is Heat untouchable in Miami?

Boston has to win at least once in Miami and stay pristine at home if the Celtics hope to survive the Heat and advance to the NBA Finals against either San Antonio or Oklahoma City. That’s a tall order for the Beantown franchise now known as Rajon Rondo’s team.

Is it possible? The record shows that so far in the playoffs, Miami is 7-1 at home and 3-2 on the road for a combined slate of 10-3. The only Heat home loss came in Game 2 of the Indiana series with the Pacers scoring a 78-75 upset. Miami has won thrice on the road, once over New York and twice over Indiana, the second a series clincher with Dwyane Wade hitting 41 points.

Boston is 2-5 on the road and 6-1 at home for a record of 8-6. The No. 4 Celtics are the lowest seeded squad to make it to the Final Four as Miami is No. 2 in the East and San Antonio No. 1 and Oklahoma City No. 2 in the West. Boston’s regular season record was 39-27 compared to Miami’s 46-20, San Antonio’s 50-16 and Oklahoma City’s 47-19.

The two Celtic wins on the road were in Game 2 of the Atlanta series and Game 3 of the Philadelphia series. At home, Boston has lost only once – in Game 2 of the Philadelphia series and that was an 82-81 decision so like Miami, the Celtics are tough to beat on their homecourt.

In the Miami-Boston series opener yesterday, Celtics coach Doc Rivers relied mainly on five key players each logging at least 30 minutes and his problem was three of them are in the 34-36 age bracket. Kevin Garnett, 36, hit 23 points in 30:40. Paul Pierce, 34, chipped in 12 in 39:38 and Ray Allen, 36, was held to six in 38:42. Rondo, 26, compiled 16 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in 44:20. No doubt, Rondo is a quality player but the Celtics will be hard pressed to make it to the Finals if Rivers puts the team exclusively on the guard’s back. Rondo is neither a LeBron James or a Kobe Bryant. Unless Rivers’ aging and aching veterans find the Foundation of Youth in a hurry, Rondo’s impressive numbers will go to waste. Lack of bench depth is a serious liability and so is an aging nucleus surrounding Rondo.

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Before Game 1 of the Heat series, Boston was No. 1 in defense among the four playoff survivors, giving up only 83.9 points and limiting opponents to .408 shooting. But Miami proved stingier in the opener, holding the Celtics to 79 points and .395 field goal percentage. Pierce and Allen were a combined 10 points off their pace. Miami scored 93 points and shot .500 from the floor. Another startling disparity was in rebounding as Miami grabbed more boards, 48-33, even without Chris Bosh in harness. What’s even more impressive was the Heat won by 14 with Udonis Haslem going scoreless.

How Boston hopes to contain Miami’s thoroughbreds is Rivers’ biggest puzzle. James, 27, and Wade, 30, are at the peak of their careers. Bosh, 28, may sit out the entire series with an abdominal strain but is likely to be reactivated for the Finals, assuming the Heat advances. Mario Chalmers, 26, Rony Turiaf, 29, Haslem, 31, Shane Battier, 33 and Joel Anthony, 29 are workhorses just like James and Wade.

The only way Miami can lose to Boston is if the Heat implodes, meaning they beat themselves. The only other way is if either James or Wade gets hurt. James has led Miami in scoring in nine of 12 playoff games with Wade doing it twice and Chalmers once. Once Bosh returns to play, the Heat will be even tougher to bring down with its vaunted pick-and-roll back in high gear.

Miami president Pat Riley, who coached the Heat to the 2006 championship, masterminded the coup that brought James, Wade and Bosh together. When he assembled the trinity, he likened James to Magic Johnson, Wade to Bryant and Bosh to Garnett.

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Rivers once said the reason why the Celtics own version of a Big Three – Garnett, Pierce and Allen – succeeded in 2008 was they were mature enough to sacrifice. “I had a group of guys that were very willing to be coached and weren’t stuck on who they were,” said Rivers. “I hear guys say they want to win it but I think what they’re really saying is, ‘I want to win it as long as I can keep doing what I do.’ I had three stars who said they wanted to win and they would change to do it. I don’t think you get that a lot.”

Rivers’ downside is Boston’s Big Three appears over-ripe. They’re proud warriors but they’re not supermen. They were a force in 2008 but not so today.

In the West, San Antonio is cleaning up with a vengeance. Last season, the No. 1 Spurs were bundled out by No. 8 Memphis in the first round of the playoffs and coach Gregg Popovich is out for vindication. San Antonio is the only unbeaten team in the playoffs, 5-0 at home and 4-0 on the road. Among the four playoff survivors, the Spurs are No. 1 in offense (102.3 points), field goal percentage (.487), rebounding (42.2), assists (23.9) and three-point field goal percentage (.411). There are nine Spurs averaging at least five points a game compared to six for Boston and five each for Oklahoma City and Miami. That depth allows Popovich to rotate his players and keep fresh legs down the stretch despite Tim Duncan at 36 and Manu Ginobili and Stephen Jackson at 34.

The Thunder have won thrice on the road, twice over Dallas and once over the Los Angeles Clippers. Oklahoma City must beat San Antonio at least once on the Spurs court for the chance to advance. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Derek Fisher and James Harden are capable of exploding but the Thunder’s bigs – Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison – aren’t. It will come down to a Finals showdown between Miami and San Antonio.