Defining TNT’s character

TNT is sitting on a 6-3 record with three games left in its PBA Commissioner’s Cup schedule and believe it or not, the Tropang Giga is in some danger of missing the playoffs. If TNT drops its last outings to Phoenix tonight, San Miguel Beer on Sunday and Rain or Shine next Friday, coach Chot Reyes’ squad will finish the elims at 6-6.

If San Miguel beats Converge tonight and TNT on Sunday, it will end up at 6-6. If NLEX defeats Rain or Shine tomorrow and Eastern on Wednesday, the Road Warriors will also close at 6-6. If Magnolia survives Eastern on Sunday and Meralco next Friday, the Hotshots will join the logjam at 6-6. So there’s a possibility that TNT, San Miguel, NLEX and Magnolia could wind up in a four-way tie for eighth with identical 6-6 records. In this situation, the two teams with the lowest quotients are eliminated outright and the other two squads will play off for the last quarterfinal ticket. Since TNT took care of NLEX by seven and Magnolia by three in the elims, it’s likely the Tropa will battle San Miguel for the No. 8 slot.

But it’ll be smooth sailing for TNT into the playoffs if the Tropa dismisses Phoenix, San Miguel and Rain or Shine. In this scenario, the Tropa will register a 9-3 mark and could gain a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals at either No. 1 or No. 2.

TNT’s defeat to Terrafirma last Wednesday was an indication of vulnerability. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Calvin Oftana accounted for 54 percent of the team’s total output. They combined for 62 percent in the previous game against Ginebra. In the conference, RHJ and Oftana are averaging 49.5 points together, 50.5 percent of the team’s clip. That kind of imbalance will be a problem in the playoffs where defense is expected to tighten up. TNT’s short rotation will also be an issue. At the moment, six players are logging at least 20 minutes but three are marking at least 30, leaving little time for others.

Aside from RHJ and Oftana, only RR Pogoy is averaging in double figure points. Offense, however, isn’t as high a priority with Reyes as defense. In TNT’s six wins, the Tropa gave up an average of 93.5 points. In its three losses, the average was 107.3. The stats reflect Reyes’ philosophy. TNT is No. 5 in defense, No. 2 in opponents’ turnovers and No. 3 in turnover points but No. 8 in offense, No. 10 in assists and No. 11 in rebounds.

TNT’s preference to shoot the long ball is evident in that the Tropa takes nearly 40 percent of its shots from three or four. TNT is No. 2 in perimeter points (45 a game) and No. 12 in paint points (34.2), a reason why its field goal percentage is No. 10 in the league. The Tropa is shooting .158 from four and .361 from three so the outside marksmanship isn’t particularly eye-popping. The lack of interior offense is a cause for concern. Poy Erram, Kelly Williams and Henry Galinato aren’t in the mold of a June Mar Fajardo. Jayson Castro’s performance is critical as his court generalship is key in instilling stability. But at 38, his minutes are managed and he hasn’t started a game this conference. There are 12 players who are over 30 in the roster so a short rotation is even more challenging. In TNT’s six victories, the average winning margin was 5.8 and three games were decided by three points or less. The next three contests will define TNT’s character. Will it rise to the occasion or fold up?