4 weather systems to dampen New Year celebrations

MANILA, Philippines — Four weather systems will dampen New Year's Eve celebrations across the Philippines with widespread rains and overcast skies, the state weather bureau PAGASA reported on Tuesday, December 31.

According to PAGASA's 5 a.m. public weather forecast, four weather systems – the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), shear line, northeast monsoon (amihan) and easterlies – will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms to most parts of the country.

The ITCZ affects a large swath of the country's south and central regions, bringing cloudy skies and scattered rains to Mindanao, Eastern and Central Visayas, Negros Island Region and parts of southern Luzon including Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate and Palawan.

In northern Luzon, the shear line – where warm easterly winds meet cool amihan air – will trigger isolated thunderstorms across Batanes, Cagayan and Apayao.

The northeast monsoon blankets the rest of northern Luzon, bringing partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains to the Ilocos region, remaining areas of Cagayan Valley and the Cordillera Administrative Region.

Meanwhile, easterly winds will bring cloudy skies and scattered rains to the Quezon province and the rest of Bicol region. 

Metro Manila and other parts of the country can expect partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms due to the easterlies.

Heavy rainfall outlook

Moderate to heavy rainfall from the shear line and ITCZ will drench several provinces across Visayas and Luzon over the next three days.

Eastern Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte can expect moderate to heavy rains measuring 50 to 100 millimeters on New Year's Eve.

The rainfall will spread to more areas by New Year's Day, affecting Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Samar and Biliran.

By Thursday, the moderate to heavy rainfall system will shift primarily to Luzon, drenching Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon and Camarines Norte.

Risks

• Flash floods and landslides could occur in urbanized and low-lying areas, especially those located near rivers
• Mountainous regions have a higher risk of hazards due to the expected heavy rainfall accumulation in elevated areas
• Communities already affected by recent heavy rainfall may face worse conditions

Sea conditions

• No gale warning
• Northern and western coasts of Northern Luzon face moderate to rough seas with wave heights of 2.1 to 3.4 meters
• Eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas will experience moderate to rough waters, with waves reaching 1.5 to 2.8 meters
• The rest of the country's coastal waters remain slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 2.5 meters

No tropical cyclone 

PAGASA reported no tropical cyclone formation as the Philippines enters 2025, sparing the country from more severe weather disturbances. 

“We are not monitoring any low-pressure area within or outside the Philippine area of responsibility, so we are not expecting any typhoon in the coming days,” weather specialist Obet Badrina said in Filipino. 

Eighteen tropical cyclones battered the Philippines in 2024.