Low risk of blackouts in summer, May polls

MANILA, Philippines — With the onset of the La Niña weather pattern, the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) expects lower chances of power outages next year, especially during the summer and election season.

“If you look at the weather now, according to PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration) as well, La Niña has already started to enter (the country),” said Isidro Cacho Jr., IEMOP head of trading operations.

La Niña is characterized by unusually cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This is the opposite of El Niño, which causes unusually warmer than normal SSTs.

“Based on the latest projection, we don’t foresee any red or yellow alerts for next summer. So, at least, I think that’s good news,” Cacho said.

A yellow alert is issued when the operating margin is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s contingency requirement.

A red alert, on the other hand, is raised when the power supply is insufficient to meet consumer demand and the grid’s regulatory requirements.

Cacho, however, pointed out that IEMOP’s projections do not account for any unplanned or forced outages of generation facilities.

“The planned outages of the plants are included in what we call the grid operations and maintenance program. We are part of the review process for that. The maintenance is all planned,” he said.

Planned maintenance outages are expected for the Visayas in the third quarter of 2025, the IEMOP executive said.

Luzon reached an all-time high peak consumer demand of 14,000 megawatts (MW) this summer, with an expected increase of 500 MW next year.

But considering the La Niña phenomenon, Cacho said next year is likely to be cooler than this year’s summer.

“So, hopefully, it will be a bit tamer compared to last summer. That provides some leeway on our demand side because what drives our demand, especially during summer, is air conditioning,” he explained.

On the supply side, Cacho said there is over 19,000 MW of power available for the Luzon grid, but this is anticipated to drop amid the potential derating of hydro facilities during the summer season.

“But compared to last summer’s El Niño, hopefully it won’t be depleted. I mean, there will still be a little left, and hydro can recover faster now because we may have a weak La Niña, so the heat won’t be as intense,” he added.

As mandated by the Electric Power Industry Reform Act, IEMOP serves as the independent market operator of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market, the centralized venue for trading electricity as a commodity. — Mayen Jaymalin