Irremediable

Yesterday, Vice President Sara Duterte convened a press conference where she shed all inhibitions talking about her erstwhile political partner. Relations between the President and the Vice President just moved beyond breaking point. The breakup has become irremediable.

The powerful partnership between the Marcos and Duterte clans produced a landslide victory for the so-called “UniTeam” in the 2022 elections. The partnership brought together two historic voting blocs: the Marcos-led “Solid North” and the staunchly pro-Duterte Cebuano-speaking voters of the Visayas and Mindanao.

In the long course of our political history, northern and southern voters are habitual rivals in national elections. That dates back to when our elections were mainly between the “Tobacco Bloc” and the “Sugar Bloc.” The UniTeam coalition was a historical rarity.

From the beginning of the coalition, there was resistance from some of the main power players. Former president Rodrigo Duterte was outspoken about his reservations. He was concerned that Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was a “weak leader.” After the crucial presidential elections, he continued to be distinctly unenthusiastic about the new President. Since last January, he had become the most outspoken critic of the Marcos administration.

The most convenient explanation for the former president’s attitude towards the sitting President was the thought that his daughter Sara might have won the 2022 elections if she persisted. But that is water under the bridge. Sara waffled when the decision point came and her father toyed with several improbable scenarios to stay in power by barely constitutional means. This included fielding Bong Go as presidential candidate with himself running as vice president.

The latter scenario might be called the “Davao model.” This might work in Davao under the absolute sway of the Duterte family as it has in other localities where dynastic kingpins are unchallenged except by the minor inconvenience of term limits. But it is highly unlikely Filipino voters nationwide might have fallen for this ploy.

The Bong Go-Rodrigo Duterte tandem swiftly evaporated in the heat of its own idiosyncrasy. It was such an obvious scam at self-perpetuation in power.

During that crucial period when Rodrigo Duterte was toying with either the possibility of running for president or running for a seat in the Senate, the alliances shifted quickly. Sara withdrew from national politics and opted to reclaim the mayorship of Davao City. She did this to avoid having two Duterte family members seeking national posts.

Eventually, as her father’s self-perpetuation scenarios dissipated, she agreed to seek the vice presidency in alliance with Bongbong Marcos. By Sara’s account, it was Imee Marcos who most influenced her decision to return to the national stage. Sara, Imee and former president Gloria Arroyo had become some sort of political triumvirate after they joined forces to oust then House Speaker Bebot Alvarez. Their partnership in that congressional coup projected them as a viable pole in national politics.

As Vice President, Sara was clearly a source of discomfort for those seeking complete control of the administration apparatus. To begin with, she is her father’s daughter: both prone to speak her mind and hew closely with her father’s political positioning. She was also a political player in her own right, seeking at the onset the powerful role of defense secretary.

She was exiled to the DepEd which was not her area of expertise. There, those who want to diminish her political potential hoped she would drown with the work or at least prove mediocre.

Sara, as an independent political player, is a threat to the most powerful faction in the Marcos II edifice. At the most basic, she was a heartbeat away from the most powerful post. Should anything untoward happen to the sitting President, Sara is the constitutionally-designated successor. She will continue to hold that ace unless impeached from the post.

Left alone, Sara has the capacity to thrive even under sustained efforts to keep her marginalized. That will make her the most viable candidate to succeed Marcos Jr. in the 2028 elections. The most powerful faction in the Marcos II edifice will not sit idly and wait for that to happen.

Finally, unless impeached and dethroned, Sara will know how to use the vice presidency as a platform to articulate dissenting views on policy. She can only be defused by taking her out of office – even as this task might require expenditure of a large amount of political capital.

Yesterday’s press conference will, in all likelihood, not be the last. Sara will continue to use this medium to speak directly to the public and evolve a distinct political personality. She is not about to disappear. She is not about to be quiet.

For as long as she is able to do so, she could potentially be a rallying point for the disaffected. She could cause some people much discomfort, cause their political plans to unravel and break the monopoly over the people’s mind that her rivals seek to achieve.

She will be a foil against those who want their grip on power to be unchallenged. At the very least, she will be a source of discomfort. Her remarks yesterday underscore this.

If there is any possibility Marcos Jr. might not be physically capable of completing his term, there will be a rush to impeach Sara. That is easy to do in the captive House. It might not be as easy in the Senate – especially if the pro-Duterte alliance wins more seats next May.