There’s no better way to end a tightly-fought PBA Philippine Cup Finals than to settle it in a winner-take-all Game 7. Defending champion TNT and challenger San Miguel Beer will lock horns one last time to break a 3-3 series deadlock for the ultimate prize at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight. San Miguel hasn’t won a championship since the 2019 Commissioner’s Cup and was out of the Finals the last four conferences. But the Philippine Cup trophy is coach Leo Austria’s favorite plum as he’s bagged five before so he’s in his comfort zone. Coach Chot Reyes, however, took the previous Philippine Cup crown and on the way, booted out San Miguel, 4-3, in the semifinals so this is also his happy hunting ground.
In an extended series, health is a critical factor and as TNT’s bench isn’t as deep as San Miguel’s, Reyes is handicapped by the exit of injured Glenn Khobuntin and possibly, Jayson Castro. Reyes said it’ll be a game-time decision whether Castro suits up or not. Castro suffered a right ankle sprain in the third quarter of Game 5 and sat out Game 6. Without Castro, TNT struggled in losing a 114-96 decision last Friday. Castro’s the stabilizer who puts order in TNT’s execution. If he’s on the court, San Miguel’s defense has to stay home on every warm body, allowing Mikey Williams a little more room to operate. In Game 6, RR Pogoy broke loose to fire 31 points but Williams was shackled, scoring a career-low two points.
With Khobuntin and Castro out of commission for Game 6, TNT missed a combined 25 points and the Tropa lost by 18. It was also TNT’s worst performance from 3-point distance, knocking down a series-low eight triples. For the series, TNT is averaging 11.2 3-point makes compared to San Miguel’s 7.5. The Beermen went berserk from deep in Game 6, burying 16, the most either team has scored in the Finals. No question, TNT can’t engage San Miguel in a shootout if the Tropa hopes to win Game 7. San Miguel has too many weapons to overpower TNT. The stats reflect the difference in focus. In TNT’s three wins over San Miguel, the Beermen were held to an average of 88 points. But in TNT's three losses, San Miguel hit at a whopping 110 clip.
San Miguel’s destiny is anchored on six-time MVP and Best Player of the Conference JuneMar Fajardo. Even if the Kraken doesn’t score too many points, he makes it easy for his teammates to compensate. In Game 6, he had 10 points but collected his series-high five assists and 12 boards. With TNT’s defense concentrated on Fajardo, he’s able to dictate how his teammates will attack. If Fajardo moves out of the blocks, the lane opens up for slashers. If he’s at the post, the shooters will get cracks. It’s no wonder that TNT has been outrebounded and outscored in paint points and second chance points in five of six games in the Finals. San Miguel’s depth is evident in bench scoring as the Beermen are averaging 51 points in three wins and 32 in three losses. From all indications, San Miguel will win with offense and TNT with defense.