Defending champion Toronto has been deposed in the NBA playoffs. The top two Eastern Conference seeds are gone. Milwaukee, holder of the league’s best regular season record, lived up to its billing as overrated and has left the Florida bubble. Survivors after two rounds of East hostilities are No. 3 Boston and No. 5 Miami. They face off in a best-of-7 series starting Tuesday (Manila time) with the winner advancing to the Last Dance.
In the regular season, Boston beat Miami twice in three meetings but those two wins had asterisks. Boston defeated Miami, 112-93 but the Heat were without Jae Crowder, Andre Igoudala and Goran Dragic while the Celtics didn’t play Marcus Smart and Gordon Hayward. The Celtics repeated over Miami, 109-101, without Jayson Tatum as the Heat had no Kelly Olynyk, Crowder and Igoudala. In their third encounter at the bubble last month, Miami downed Boston, 112-106 and both had full lineups.
Boston was at its scariest defensively in dethroning the Raptors, 92-87, in Game 7 of their series yesterday. Toronto committed 18 turnovers, compared to Boston’s 10 and the missed possessions allowed the Celts to take 11 more field goal attempts so even if the Raptors shot at a higher clip, 41.3 percent to 40.7 percent, coach Brad Stevens’ Green Gang compensated with volume and registered four more connections from the floor. Four Celts logged at least 42 minutes and only six played at least 10, indicating an over-reliance on Stevens’ nucleus. If Hayward is able to return to action, Boston’s rotation will be deeper. In the regular season, five Celtics averaged at least 31 minutes a game, including Hayward.
Boston’s defense is what cranks up the Celtics’ confidence. Boston was No. 2 in giving up the least points, No. 2 in least assists allowed, No. 2 in least three-point percentage allowed and No. 4 in field goal percentage allowed during the regular season. The Celts are carrying over their defensive orientation to the playoffs where they’ve limited opponents to less than 100 points in five of 11 games. Tatum is the Celtics’ best player and he’s only 22. The 6-8 forward is a matchup nightmare because of his versatility and ability to play multiple positions. Jaylen Brown, 23, is another lethal weapon. Hayward, stopper Marcus Smart and Kemba Walker round up the main men. German center Daniel Theis is a weak link at center but Stevens hopes he matures to become a Rudy Gobert-type with his length in a hurry.
If Boston’s strength is defense, Miami’s trump card is depth. Seven Heat players averaged in double figure points in the regular season and six are doing it in the playoffs. When Miami disposed of Milwaukee in Game 5 of their series, nine players logged double figure minutes but none went at least 40. Jimmy Butler has emerged as coach Erik Spoelstra’s go-to guy but Bam Adebayo, Dragic, Crowder and Tyler Herro are just as capable of taking the big shot with the game on the line. Herro is only 20 but the rookie is working like a vet in the clutch, averaging 14.7 points in the playoffs. Herro’s paycheck this year is $3.64 million, way below Igoudala’s $17.2 million and Olynyk’s $11.3 million. But he’s making every cent count.
Spoelstra’s unpredictability in employing different tactics is a huge advantage to keep Boston off-balance. Even as the Heat made its mark as a crack three-point shooting team in the regular season, Miami wasn’t a slouch on defense, ranking No. 1 in least two point attempts given up, No. 3 in least rebounds allowed and No. 6 in least three-point field goal percentage allowed. In Game 1 of the Milwaukee series, Miami dominated the interior and scored more paint points, 42-24 despite Giannis Antetokounmpo’s presence, indicating the Heat can be as deadly attacking the basket as hitting the long ball. It’ll be a dogfight in the East for sure.