The risky grand fan-less experiment

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the controversial director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases throughout six presidencies, has proclaimed that the only way for professional sports to continue is to hold games without live spectators and cloister teams in hotels. It’s already a foregone conclusion that sports will be a last priority in returning to normal, since large crowds are necessary for profitability. But, since it is big business, naturally leagues will try to find a way to save at least some of their revenue. Players  can always fight for their pay, since contracts are guaranteed. Like it or not, pro sports leagues are still spending at least half their annual expenses on those disproportionately large salaries.

The United States has been the model for professional sports for decades. It is also home leagues that have been considered the paragons of sports business, like NASCAR, the NBA and Major League Baseball. If we set aside the probable assumption that the COVID-19 epidemic will get worse since many Americans don’t want to stay home, what American sports leagues do next may influence protocols for the rest of the world’s pro entities. At worst, they will be an example of what not to do.

Major League Baseball will most likely be the first professional sports league to resume operations, albeit in a greatly modified manner. The league is already studying holding games in a centralized location, and Gov. Doug Ducey of Arizona has offered to host all 30 teams throughout the season. Besides, baseball is a segmented sport, and requires explosiveness more than the continuous display of athleticism that most other sports do. Getting back in shape from the quarantine will not be as significant. They could, essentially, play already.

I just have one problem with baseball as a test case: the games are played outdoors, and the virus is supposedly airborne. That is a risk MLB may have to further mitigate somehow. Since the plan is to play in a single venue or a handful of venues, they can make structural changes to the stadium or stadia to be used. First, they can find – if possible – a stadium adjacent to a hotel. Secondly, they can enclose all the areas where players are save for the diamond itself, including the dugout and bullpen. Third, the players and officials can be made to wear masks while playing. This may be a merchandising opportunity to replace some of the ticket sales lost. Fourth, as suggested by Fauci, the players can be tested weekly. Fifth, practices may be more strictly monitored. Enclosed football stadiums may be used as practice facilities, since there are no school sports or NFL games. Arizona’s weather will also allow baseball to be played throughout the winter.

The impetus for sports leagues to find a way around quarantine – aside from players’ salaries – is to redeem their broadcast contracts and retain their audiences. Some income is better than none. And after a prolonged absence, they may lose significant market share to streaming services. We’ve seen it happen to the large television networks in the US. ABC, CBS and NBC, and to some extent CNN and Fox, are no longer the juggernauts they were 20 to 30 years ago. The long-term viability of networks profiting from sports content is gradually becoming questionable. They need to keep going.

It would actually be relatively easy for basketball leagues like the PBA to play under these conditions. There are hotels adjacent to many of the league’s regular venues. Araneta Coliseum, Mall of Asia Arena, Cuneta Astrodome and even Rizal Memorial. Coliseums all have hotels within walking distance. Besides, in the 1970’s, players used to be brought to games together, anyway. The main difference will be that, instead of being at home with their families, players will be cooped up in hotels, and the cost of the rooms (and regular testing for the virus) may be an additional cost. Chicken and egg situation, financially speaking, unless the hotels sponsor the teams, which may not make sense for them at the moment.

Realistically, if Major League Baseball does not start the bandwagon, the NBA may take the plunge, albeit after a month for teams to get back in shape. If not, October will be the earliest likely resumption of some professional sports, if not early 2021. Sadly, citizens in many parts of the US are protesting the instruction to confine themselves to their homes. This may spur more outbreaks, and will set back their return to normalcy even more. Luckily for the Philippines, there is no winter, and the temperate climate may encourage resumption of play sooner.

Any move towards regular operations is a risky one. Fans can’t be stopped from going to the venues to gamble on catching a glimpse of their favorite athletes. They have free time and, particularly in America, more people have cars. Food servers, receptionists and security personnel may also be at risk. Even if exposure of players to other people is minimized, hotel and venue staff still come and go.

Everyone is in waiting and seeing. The question is who will be the first to start moving and doing.