Must-win situation

The defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors are in serious trouble and if they don’t beat Oklahoma City in Game 4 of their Western Conference Final best-of-7 series on the road this morning (Manila time), the chances of retaining the title will slip to slim or none.

It’s not like Golden State hasn’t been in a 1-2 situation before. Last season, the Dubs were in that predicament twice, surviving both the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Semifinals and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Last Dance to win it all. Golden State wiggled out of danger in the two series by sweeping the last three games, something the Warriors may not be able to do easily against the Thunder.

In Game 3 last Monday morning (Manila time), Golden State was embarrassed by the Thunder at the Chesapeake Energy Arena and lost by 28 points, 133-105. The lead was biggest at 41. It was the Warriors’ fourth loss in the playoffs and Golden State’s worst this campaign. So far, they’re 9-4 in the postseason, 7-1 at home and 2-3 on the road. The previous losses were to Portland, 120-108, to Houston, 97-96 and to Oklahoma City in Game 1, 108-102.

In the playoffs last season, the Warriors lost five games, one to Houston, 128-115, two to Memphis, 97-90 and 99-89 and two to Cleveland, 95-93 in overtime and 96-91. Two of the five setbacks came at the Oracle Arena. This past regular season, Golden State lost only twice at home – to Boston and Minnesota. Now in the playoffs, the Dubs have lost once in Oakland.

* * *

Nobody could’ve imagined Golden State losing to the Thunder so badly in Game 3. After all, the Warriors won an NBA best-ever 73 games in the regular season and were widely tipped to win a second straight crown with back-to-back MVP Steph Curry.

But Oklahoma City rookie coach Billy Donovan masterfully brought down the Warriors behind a balanced attack and an unforgiving defense that held the Dubs to 41.3 percent shooting from the field. It was in Game 1 where the Thunder struck like lightning to draw first blood. Game 3 was a reminder that the series opening victory was no fluke.

The Thunder’s big lineup took the starch out of the Warriors frontliners in Game 3 and when Donovan went small, there was also little the Dubs could do to counter. Steven Adams, Serge Ibaka, Enes Kanter and Kevin Durant combined to haul down 33 boards as Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli, Mo Speights and Anderson Varejao grabbed a combined 10. In all, the Thunder dominated the rebounds, 52-38.

Curry got away with 24 points but was only 7-of-17 from the floor while Klay Thompson fired 18 on 8-of-19 field goals without a single free throw attempt. The Thunder shot 33-of-37 from the line while the Warriors hit 19-of-25. Oklahoma City had more fastbreak points, 29-13 and points in the paint, 62-44. Golden State couldn’t have chosen a worse game to suffer a meltdown.

Six OKC players finished in double figure points – Durant 33, Russell Westbrook 30, Ibaka 14, Andre Roberson 13, Dion Waiters 13 and Kanter 10. Only Curry and Thompson scored in twin digits for Golden State.

* * *

Another loss for the Dubs in Oklahoma will put Golden State in a 1-3 hole and even if the Warriors win Game 5 at the Oracle Arena, the Thunder could close it out in Game 6 at home. So Game 4 is a virtual must-win for Golden State.

Donovan has pushed Warriors coach Steve Kerr on the defensive by alternating small and big lineups with Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka the constant denominators. His small lineup consists of Westbrook, Waiters, Randy Foye, Durant and Ibaka while his big lineup has Adams, Ibaka or Kanter, Durant, Westbrook and Roberson. Kerr likes to use a small lineup without Bogut or Ezeli or Speights or Varejao, deploying Draymond Green at center. But it’s a lineup that OKC could eat alive with Adams and Ibaka or Kanter. Kerr can’t afford to lose track of the matchups and should take the initiative in forcing Donovan to adjust, not the other way around.

Curry and Thompson won’t be able to lift Golden State out of trouble by themselves. They need help. Kerr relies heavily on quickness, passing and outside shooting to frustrate opponents. OKC, in contrast, uses the athleticism of Durant and Westbrook and the physical play of Adams, Ibaka and Roberson to negate the Warriors’ finesse game. The coach who is able to impose his style over the other will win the series.

* * *

In the Memphis duel last season, Golden State fell behind, 1-2, after losing Game 3, 99-89. But that propelled the Warriors to win the next three encounters, including two on the road. It was exactly the same scenario in the Finals as Golden State stormed back from 1-2 down to win three in a row, including two in Cleveland.

OKC’s record in the playoffs so far is 10-4, 5-2 at home and 5-2 on the road. The Thunder’s losses were twice to San Antonio, 124-92 on the road and 100-06 at home, once to Dallas, 85-84, at home and once to Golden State, 118-91 on the road. Remember that in Game 2 of the Golden State series, the Thunder lost by 27 and OKC came back to win Game 3 by 28. So the pendulum swings both ways.

Winning 73 games in the regular season won’t mean much if the Warriors don’t repeat as NBA champions. Kerr realizes that and so does Curry. That’s why in Game 4 against OKC this morning, expect the Warriors to play their guts out because another loss could mean the end of an opportunity to make history.