Duel to stay alive

Two games are left in the PBA Philippine Cup single-round elimination schedule and one of them is a do-or-die battle to decide which team is struck out of contention. The virtual playoff involves Blackwater and Mahindra, both toting identical 2-8 records. They face off in the first game at 3 this afternoon in the Mall of Asia Arena. The second pairing pits Barangay Ginebra San Miguel and TNT, starting at 5:15 p.m.

There’s a bitter rivalry between Mahindra and Blackwater. They entered the PBA as rookie franchises last season when Mahindra was known as Kia. The teams opened last season with a bang before over 52,000 fans at the Philippine Arena with Kia claiming bragging rights via an 80-66 decision. In the Commissioner’s Cup, Blackwater got even with a 115-104 win over Kia with import Marcus Douthit conspiring with the Elite locals in neutralizing P. J. Ramos’ 40-point explosion. In the Governors Cup, Kia beat Blackwater, 105-90, as Hamady N’Diaye got the better of Douthit in their matchup.

Right now, Mahindra is one up on Blackwater in their head-to-head series. The Elite finished last in every conference last season and compiled an overall record of 4-29, going winless in the Philippine Cup before picking up three victories in the Commissioner’s Cup and one in the Governors Cup. Mahindra, as Kia, placed 11th in the Philippine and Commissioner’s Cup then climbed to ninth in the Governors Cup. In all, Kia strung up a record of 10-23. Kia won five games in the third conference, victimizing San Miguel Beer, NLEX, Blackwater, Barako Bull and Meralco.

Mahindra shook up its lineup in the offseason, moving out Leo Avenido, J. R. Buensuceso, Jason Deutchman, Hans Thiele and J. R. Cawaling, among others, to make room for Mike DiGregorio, Bradwyn Guinto, Aldrech Ramos, Nino Canaleta, Eddie Laure, Paolo Hubalde, John Pinto, Papot Paredes and Juneric Baloria. Acting head coach Chito Victolero, calling the shots for Manny Pacquiao, retained L. A. Revilla, Karl Dehesa, Rich Alvarez, Kyle Pascual, Mark Yee, Chito Jaime, Hyram Bagatsing, Joshua Webb and Kenneth Ighalo from the previous roster.

So far, the Enforcers have won only twice this conference, beating NLEX, 103-93 and Meralco, 86-83. But there were close calls along the way, like the 118-116 overtime loss to Globalport, the 98-94 defeat to Alaska, the 80-76 heartbreaker to Ginebra and the 101-97 setback to TNT. Mahindra’s averaging losing margin is 7.5 points. In the Enforcers’ two wins, they gave up an average of 88 points but it ballooned to 100.5 in the eight defeats. Five of Mahindra’s eight losses came when their opponents scored at least 100.

Mahindra leads the PBA in most fouls given up at 30.1 and most steals with 7.6 a game. The Enforcers are allowing the most fastbreak points at 16.2 and free throws at 20.1. The stats show that if Mahindra isn’t playing tough defense, the team’s bound to lose. The Enforcers are No. 9 in defense, allowing 98 points an outing. Victolero has stoppers in Yee and Alvarez but Mahindra won’t beat Blackwater unless the Enforcers play defense as a team.

Four Enforcers are averaging in double figure points, Ramos (15.0 with a 57.1 percent clip from three-point distance), Dehesa (13.0), Revilla (12.4 with 3.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists) and Yee (11.0 with 8.8 rebounds, shooting 92.5 percent from the line). No player is averaging at least 30 minutes and eight are logging at least 20. Victolero has started 13 players so far. A bright spot has been DiGregorio who collected 19 points, five rebounds and four dimes in Mahindra’s last assignment which was the overtime loss to Globalport. Dehesa and Ramos are averaging a combined 48.5 points in their last two contests so Victolero has a lot of offensive options to tap. Victolero has sent in 19 players this conference, rotating players to find the perfect chemistry. He’s giving rookies and veterans alike the chance to prove their worth. For a second-year team, it’s a step in the right direction.

Blackwater also underwent a personnel overhaul in the offseason. Gone are Bryan Faundo, Chris Timberlake, Robby Celiz, Brian Heruela, Laure, Val Acuna, Larry Rodriguez and Sunday Salvacion. Newcomers are Mike Cortez, Carlo Lastimosa, Almond Vosotros, James Sena, Keith Agovida, Arthur de la Cruz and Jason Melano.

The Elite had a 4-29 record last season. Blackwater defeated San Miguel Beer, Kia and Meralco in the Commissioner’s Cup and Ginebra in the Governors Cup. This conference, the Elite has beaten Meralco, 92-90 and Barako Bull, 116-92. The Elite is No. 11 in defense, giving up 98.8 points and No. 3 in fastbreak points at 12.6, No. 3 in second chance points at 13.1 and No. 2 in blocked shots at 4.7. Blackwater is last in turnover points at 13.1 so coach Leo Isaac has to find more ways to manufacture easy baskets. The Elite’s average losing margin is 11.4 points.

Cortez is the only Blackwater player to start in every game and he’s averaging 33.7 minutes, the only Elite to log at least 30. Lastimosa is averaging 15.5 points and was spectacular in torching Barako Bull with 38 points last Dec. 11. He would be a deadlier weapon if only he could make his free throws consistently – he’s hitting only 56 percent from the stripe. Two others averaging in double figures are J. P. Erram (11.9 with 8.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocked shots a game) and De la Cruz (11.3). Three players are hitting at least nine a game –Bambam Gamalinda (9.4), Reil Cervantes (9.1) and Cortez (9.0).

Because Blackwater has shot blockers to protect the rim, the key is to lure Mahindra’s outside gunners from the perimeter and try their luck inside. The Enforcers are a potent three-point bomb squad and the Elite won’t want Mahindra to jack it up from beyond the arc without a serious contest. If Blackwater can close in on the outside shooters and force them to put the ball on the floor instead, it’ll be half the battle won in defense.

The loser of the game will join Meralco out of the playoff picture. The winner moves on to play No. 3 with a twice-to-win disadvantage. For sure, Mahindra and Blackwater will leave it all on the floor in their duel. Neither team wants to exit not only because they’ll be out of the playoffs but also because losing will mean survival for their archrival. Expect the competition to be as fierce as if they were fighting for the championship.