Ginebra can’t afford lapses

Two games are left in Barangay Ginebra’s schedule in the PBA Commissioner’s Cup eliminations and coach Ato Agustin can’t afford any more losses if the goal is to avert outright disqualification from the playoffs.

Ginebra’s record is 4-5, tied with Globalport, Barako Bull and Kia for sixth spot. The last four placers will be struck out of contention at the end of the eliminations on March 25.  There will be no playoff to break ties in the 12-team standings with the quotient system to settle deadlocks.  On Saturday, Ginebra battles Globalport and faces Alaska on March 25 to close out its schedule.  Both games are crucial as Ginebra, Globalport and Alaska may figure in a logjam.  The key is to pile up points over the other for a comfortable quotient cushion.

Mathematically, no team has been eliminated. Cellar-dweller Blackwater is 2-7 but if the Elite wins its last two games, the expansion franchise might just wind up in the quarterfinals with previous decisions over San Miguel Beer and Kia.  The battle for the top two slots for a twice-to-beat advantage in the first round of the playoffs is another unsettled issue.  Meralco is in solo first place with a 6-2 mark.  Tied for second are Purefoods, Talk ‘N’ Text and Rain Or Shine with identical 6-3 marks.  In fifth spot is NLEX at 5-4.  Any of the top five teams can end up either first or second.  The Road Warriors, for instance, can’t be discounted as they’ve won their last four, five of their last six.  

For the playoff qualifiers, teams are avoiding seventh or eight spot because of the twice-to-win disadvantage.  San Miguel Beer, now holding on to 11th place, is on a two-game win streak and could still sneak into the top eight.  Games left in San Miguel’s schedule are Talk ‘N’ Text tomorrow and Globalport next Tuesday.  San Miguel probably wouldn’t mind finishing seventh or eighth for as long as the Beermen advance to the playoffs.  Besides, it’s a team that’s slowly gaining momentum and a twice-to-win disadvantage may not be too daunting an obstacle. 

Ginebra has to be the hard-luck squad of the second conference.  The Barangay lost two games by a point – to Barako Bull, 69-68 and Talk ‘N’ Text, 10-103. Ginebra blew a 12-point lead to bow to NLEX by six in a game where the Barangay was on top for 43 1/2 of 48 minutes. Last Sunday, Ginebra suffered another homestretch collapse as it frittered away an 18-point bulge to lose to Rain Or Shine, 82-79.  The Barangay led in 40 of 48 minutes but couldn’t nail the win over the Elasto Painters.  If those four losses were wins, Ginebra’s record would now be 8-1.

Against Rain Or Shine, Ginebra shot itself in the foot. Late in the game, L. A. Tenorio missed an unmolested layup, import Mike Dunigan was called for stepping on the endline, Mark Caguioa flubbed an open corner jumper, Eman Monfort was forced into a turnover and Mac Baracael slipped on a drive to throw away possession.  The collapse was decisive.  Agustin attempted to send in Greg Slaughter with less than a minute left but the sub was disallowed as Ginebra had used up its one replacement during the 30-second timeout.  Slaughter eventually checked in but was of no consequence.

Agustin’s rotation was far from fluid down the stretch. At crunchtime, he chose to leave Monfort on the floor instead of Tenorio and it proved costly.  Agustin also sat down Slaughter in the entire fourth period until the last few seconds.  He gambled on pairing Dunigan with Japeth Aguilar who had nine points and 11 boards in 24:25 minutes.  Aguilar is a more mobile defender than Slaughter and was Agustin’s logical choice to double Rain Or Shine’s Wayne Chism who was primarily guarded by Dunigan.

Ginebra was clearly bothered by Rain Or Shine’s leech-like defense on its point guard.  Gabe Norwood was a nightmare for Monfort and Tenorio who gave up at least six inches to Mr. President.  Jonathan Uyloan and Jireh Ibanes also provided pressure in the backcourt.  The idea was to obstruct the point guard’s vision to make it difficult to locate Dunigan.  The trick worked like a charm as Dunigan’s touches were limited in the second half when Rain Or Shine turned on the defensive heat.  At one point, Agustin sent in Monfort and Tenorio together, sacrificing size for quickness and ballhandling against the pressure.

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In a close game, possessions make a huge difference.  That was the case in Ginebra’s loss.  Rain Or Shine had 10 more field goal attempts so that even if the Elasto Painters shot only 29 percent from the floor compared to Ginebra’s 37 percent, they made up for the discrepancy in volume.  What gave Rain Or Shine more possessions were its rebounding advantage, 58-51, a whopping edge in offensive rebounds, 22-12 and two less turnovers.  The Elasto Painters had more second chance points, 11-6 and more triple conversions, 7-2.

Rain Or Shine ignited an 11-0 blast in the last 4:22 to crush Ginebra.  In the last 8.6 seconds, the Barangay had a chance to send it to overtime.  But after a timeout, the execution went awry. Baracael got the ball in the far corner and his Hail Mary shot was blocked to preserve the Elasto Painters’ edge.

Ginebra’s late lapses are becoming too frequent for comfort.  If they’re not arrested, the Barangay might find itself left out in the cold at the end of the eliminations.  It’s not too late for a comeback.  But Agustin must inspire more consistency from his troops.  Ginebra can’t just start strong, it’s got to finish stronger.

Dunigan, 25, is no stranger to PBA wars.  He averaged 22.9 points and 15.4 rebounds with Air21 two seasons back.  The former University of Oregon forward knows it’ll take a team effort to get ahead, that one man won’t be able to get the job done over the long haul.  Dunigan came from the same Farragut Academy that produced Kevin Garnett and Ronnie Fields in Chicago and polished his skills under the Attack Athletics conditioning program of Tim Grover whose celebrity client list includes Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant.  He can’t be blamed for Ginebra’s lapses and downward spiral.  Dunigan will do what it takes to win but if he doesn’t get help from his teammates and guidance from Agustin, Ginebra could be in for an early vacation.