World Cup: Managing expectations

The FIBA World Cup opens tonight, with the world watching as basketball’s version of the quadrennial event unfolds in Spain. The Philippines hosted the event in 1978, and performed miserably despite being seeded to the quarterfinals. Let us remember that, at the time, the country’s best players were already in the Philippine Basketball Association, and this left young collegiate players to compete against older, tougher opponents. Basketball was not yet an open sport, and the PBA was formed so that owners of professional teams could keep their players and not have to loan them for an indefinite period of time to the national team.

In 1978, the national team was composed of future second-generation Crispa players like Padim Israel, Mon Cruz and Joy Carpio, as well as other college superstars like the prolific Steve Watson. Needless to say, without the full pool of local talent available to the cause, the country was blanked in the competition. This also showcased the emergence of European and Latin American countries, which started to dominate after the US had its struggles in the Olympic Games.

In order, the Philippines will face Croatia, Greece, Argentina, Puerto Rico and Senegal in Group B. It will be tricky to predict the outcome of the games, though admittedly, things do not look too bright for the Philippines. Facing two of the top 10 and four of the top 20 teams in the world is a daunting task, but at this point, at least we are already in the ballpark and part of the discussion, instead of being mere spectators.

What are some of the factors that could influence whether or not the country wins or loses? Firstly, the sheer talent of the field makes it impossible to predict if we will be able to win two games, which may help us move on to the round of 16. We need to finish in the top four in our bracket, then see where the chips fall. Materially speaking, people may have underestimated the loss of Larry Fonacier. Time and time again, we have proven the need for tall outside shooters to equalize the level of competition. Time and time again, national coaches have been looking for the next-generation version of Allan Caidic. With limited outside offensive weapons of size, we will not be able to force defenses to come out to meet the shooters, and make it doubly challenging for our wing players to attack the basket.

One factor worth considering is who is coaching each team. Some coaches use international tournaments to experiment with their lineups, and change defensive strategies. This will be the tricky part. If the opposing coach decides to mix up his starters, he may end up confusing his team, and make it easier for the Philippines to keep in close throughout the game. It will definitely be tough with their deep international experience and size, but the bigger factor will be chemistry, if a rival coach uses an unnatural combination of players, then we may have a better chance at beating them at the end of the game.

On the surface, it may appear that we will have an easier time towards the end of the eliminations, when some teams have already qualified and some have already been disqualified in the hunt for the next round. They may actually play around in their game against us, and that would mean Puerto Rico and Senegal. Puerto Rico plays Argentina, Senegal and Greece, so they would most likely still need to beat the Philippines to advance, assuming they lose to Argentina and Greece and would have only that one win against Senegal. They would then be playing with desperation, while the Filipinos would have virtually no pressure on them at all. Which means the Latin American contender could get sloppy.

Lastly, we will be facing Senegal, which will have gone through the gauntlet of Greece, Puerto Rico, Croatia and Argentina before facing the Philippines in its last assignment. As the lowest-ranked team in the bracket, it is very possible that Senegal could still be winless at this point, and we could keep them that way with a solid all-around game. After all, one win would only keep them out of the basement, and not really give them a chance to make it to the next round. We would, however, have to build a big lead early and defend very well on that last game, which is the only one on paper that we have decent odds of winning.

The question, therefore, is how do we get our first win of the tournament? Though people are looking at Puerto Rico, that’s only because of what they see on paper. The fact of the matter is that Puerto Rico has a strong tall lineup of rugged guards who could give us trouble. The challenge, therefore, is to frustrate them with good team defense, make the guards give up the ball, then crash the boards. In the FIBA Asia tournament, our bigs held their own against anyone  or named Hamed Haddadi. Contrary to a lot of pundits’ opinions, rebounding will not be a foregone conclusion, the Philippines has not really been scouted that well, since it is a newcomer to the tournament. And since it is only recently that we naturalized Andray Blatche, then Chot Reyes may have some element of surprise.

Overall, it is going to be heartwarming to see the country’s flag fly in the tournament. But let’s manage our expectations. As this writer has said, one game is doable, two would need the assistance of some other factors. 

But it never hurts to dream, does it?