Down to Final Four

From 32 teams, the cast is down to four at the 20th FIFA World Cup in Brazil and now, the excitement rises to a fever-pitch level. Host Brazil battles Germany in the first semifinal match at the 57,483-seat Estadio Mineirao in Belo Horizonte this afternoon (tomorrow 4 a.m., Manila time). In the other semifinal, Argentina takes on the Netherlands at the 65,807-seat Arena de Sao Paolo tomorrow afternoon (Thursday 4 a.m., Manila time).

Six host countries have won the World Cup with Uruguay in 1930, Italy in 1934, England in 1966, West Germany in 1974, Argentina in 1978 and France in 1998. Two hosts lost in the finals, Brazil to Uruguay in 1950 and Sweden to Brazil in 1958. Four hosts succumbed in the semifinals and three went on to settle for third place, Chile in 1962, Italy in 1990 and Germany in 2006. South Korea, co-host with Japan in 2002, lost in the semifinals and bowed to Turkey in the battle for third in Daegu.

Brazil could follow in the footsteps of host semifinal losers Chile, Italy, Germany and South Korea as the Selecao will be without injured Neymar and skipper Thiago Silva against Germany. Silva will serve a one-match suspension for a second yellow card in the tournament. Neymar, hailed as the next Pele, suffered a fractured vertebra in Brazil’s quarterfinal win over Colombia.

Expected to carry the fight for Brazil is David Luiz who scored a goal in the 1-1 draw with Chile in the Round of 16, eventually settled in a penalty shootout, and another goal in the win over Colombia. Silva booted in the other goal against Colombia. Writer Mike Foss said Luiz “has the rare combination of Brazilian technique and English tenacity which he’s learned as a member of London-based club Chelsea in the Premier League … he’s been known to hit pulsing free kicks and deliver bone-rattling tackles.” Another Brazilian to watch is midfielder Oscar who accounted for a goal in Brazil’s 3-1 opening win over Croatia. Luiz and Oscar are Chelsea teammates so they know each other’s moves well. Oscar turned in a hat trick at the U20 World Cup final in 2011, leading Brazil to the throne.

Germany’s Thomas Muller collected four goals in the group stage but has since been silent. Andre Schurrle and Mesut Ozil scored a goal each in Germany’s 2-1 win over Algeria in the Round of 16 and Mats Hummels posted the game winner in the 1-0 decision over France in the quarterfinals. Although defending Golden Boot winner Muller is still the man to watch, Ozil has gained a lot of attention. Writer Jesse Yomtov described Ozil as “a genius on the ball, he can slice open a defense with his incisive passing and has proved more than capable of getting forward to score.”

Germany has reached the quarterfinals in the last 16 World Cups, including this year’s version. The national team is coming off back-to-back third place finishes and hasn’t won the World Cup since 1990. To advance to the finals, Germany will have to break the hearts of every Brazilian in the host country. Yomtov said if Germany has a flaw, it’s defense. “The Germans have struggled to find a reliable duo at center back with options such as Jerome Boateng and Per Mertesacker prone to big mistakes,” he wrote. “Regardless, the team’s experience and talent far outweigh any shortcomings.”

Lionel Messi, like Muller, hasn’t scored since the group stage. Argentina has managed to escape in match after match, barely surviving but displaying incredible poise to gut out victories. In the preliminaries, Argentina nipped Bosnia-Herzegovina, 2-1, Iran, 1-0 and Nigeria, 3-2. In the Round of 16, Argentina edged Switzerland, 1-0, on Angel Di Maria’s goal and Belgium, 1-0, on Gonzalo Higuain’s marker. So far in the tournament, Messi has compiled four goals and an assist.

Argentina won the World Cup in 1978 and 1986. Since losing to Italy in the final in 1990, Argentina hadn’t been back in the semifinals until this year. Writer Nick Schwartz said “it’s now or never” for Argentina with four-time World Player of the Year Messi leading the charge.

The Netherlands got off to a rousing start in the competition by routing Spain, 5-1, then beat Australia, 3-2 and Chile, 2-0, before disposing of Mexico, 2-1, in the Round of 16 and Costa Rica in a penalty shootout after a scoreless draw in the quarterfinals. There is some public sympathy for the Dutch who have never won a World Cup despite final finishes in 1974, 1978 and 2010. The Orange was untouchable in the qualifiers with a 9-0-1 record and a goal differential of 29. The Netherlands’ Three Musketeers of Robin van Persie, Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder are in a class of their own. Nate Scott said, “there are few more dangerous attacking trios in all of soccer.”

In a poll of six soccer experts, four chose Brazil or Germany to win it all. “I expect Germany to be the first European country to win a World Cup on South American soil,” said Yomtov. “It is the deepest team in the tournament and it has the experience and talent necessary to overcome all challenges.” Foss said, “Brazil has the backing of an entire country and too much talent not to prevail.” Foss, however, made his prediction before Neymar’s fall.

Walter Villa said “it would be a juicy final if Argentina, with the world’s best player, plays Brazil.” That could happen if Brazil beats Germany and Argentina ousts the Netherlands. The final is set on Sunday afternoon (Monday 3 a.m., Manila time) at the Estadio do Maracana in Rio de Janeiro.