Foot in door for Ginebra

Barangay Ginebra San Miguel has two games left in its schedule in the PBA Philippine Cup first round of eliminations and a win over Globalport on Friday or Talk ‘N’ Text on Sunday will guarantee a twice-to-beat advantage in the playoffs.

At the moment, Ginebra has a 10-2 record to hold pole position. Tied for second are Petron and Rain Or Shine with identical 9-3 marks. The Blaze Boosters play San Mig Coffee tonight and Meralco on Saturday while the Painters take on Meralco tonight and Air 21 on Saturday to complete their calendars. Even assuming Petron and Rain Or Shine win their last two assignments, Ginebra will remain at No. 1 with one more victory because of the quotient system in case of a triple tie. That’s because Ginebra is +14 over Petron and +13 over Rain Or Shine.

If Ginebra loses its last two outings and Petron and Rain Or Shine zoom to 11-3, the Kings drop to No. 3 with a 10-4 mark. It’s not likely that Ginebra will lose two in a row – that hasn’t happened this conference. Ginebra’s only defeats were to Meralco, later avenged, and San Mig Coffee. The Barangay has won seven of its last eight and is coming off a 90-83 triumph over Barako.

If Petron and Rain Or Shine wind up tied, they’ll square off to decide No. 2. Under league rules, a playoff will break a tie for second or eighth. All other ties will be decided by the quotient system. Why a playoff for second or eighth only? That’s because a lot is at stake in both situations. The team that takes second place gains a twice-to-beat advantage in the first round of playoffs while the third placer has to face the No. 6 team in a best-of-three series. The team that finishes eighth advances to the playoffs. The last two finishers are struck out of contention.

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Rain Or Shine is the league’s hottest team with a five-game winning streak. The Painters’ only losses were to Ginebra, Globalport and Talk ‘N’ Text. They beat Petron, 99-95, but did it in overtime so the outcome could’ve gone either way. Coach Yeng Guiao has started every player in his roster this conference, a testament to his philosophy of equal opportunity. Every Painter has scored in double figures in at least a game except for Jireh Ibanes and that, too, is evidence that Guiao brings out the best in his troopers. Even rookies Alex Nuyles, Raymond Almazan and Jeric Teng have enjoyed their moments of brilliance. Guiao’s masterful rotation gives Rain Or Shine a huge edge because of its depth and with the schedule compressed to finish off early for Gilas to get a longer training period, that’s a major advantage.

Petron got off to a 7-0 jackrabbit start but has sputtered lately, losing three of its last five. Two of the setbacks came when JuneMar Fajardo couldn’t play due to injury. Now that Fajardo is back in harness, Petron is ready to make a big push for a twice-to-beat edge. Reigning MVP Arwind Santos has been a picture of consistency for the Blaze Boosters, doing it on both ends. Santos and Fajardo are two of only five players in the league to score in twin digits in every game this conference. The others are Ginebra’s Japeth Aguilar, Talk ‘N’ Text’s Jayson Castro and Globalport’s Sol Mercado.

Meralco will test both Petron and Rain Or Shine before the eliminations end. The Bolts are battling to avoid falling to either No. 7 or No. 8. Their record is 5-7, same as San Mig Coffee which still has to play Petron and Talk ‘N’ Text.

The Texters are now at No. 4 with 7-5 and will play San Mig Coffee on Friday and Ginebra on Sunday. If they win both games and Petron and Rain Or Shine lose their last two, there will be a three-way tie for second. In this situation, the team with the lowest quotient (Talk ‘N’ Text at -27) will drop to No. 4 and Petron and Rain Or Shine will slug it out for No. 2 in a playoff. So the Texters are no longer in contention for a twice-to-beat advantage.

Air 21 got the first boot after losing a 67-60 decision to San Mig Coffee last Saturday. That dropped the Express’ record to 3-10 with a game against Rain Or Shine to go. Since eight teams have won at least five games, Air 21 is out of it. Alaska is No. 9 with 4-9 and plays Barako Bull on Sunday. If the Aces beat the Energy Cola, they’ll both finish with identical 5-9 records. That will set up a playoff for No. 8 between the same two squads.

Globalport has a game left and a win over Ginebra on Friday will clinch a spot in the playoffs. If Alaska loses to Barako on Sunday, the Batang Pier gains safe entry to the playoffs regardless of the outcome of the Ginebra game. The eliminations end Sunday. Any playoff will be on Monday. The two best-of-three quarterfinal series begin Tuesday and the playoffs pitting No. 1 vs No. 8 and No. 2 vs No. 7 will be on Wednesday. The best-of-seven semifinals reel off on Jan. 27 and the best-of-seven finals starts Feb. 14.