Factors of consequence

MACAU – Breaking down the facts and figures of the fight between Manny Pacquiao and Brandon Rios at the Cotai Arena in the Venetian Resort Hotel here this morning, you end up analyzing how they measure up in 15 factors of consequence.

It’s a classic case of youth against experience. Rios is 27 and Pacquiao 34. The Filipino ring icon has been a pro since 1995 and Rios since 2004, a huge nine-year headstart for the man who was once the world’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter. The disparity in experience is glaring with Pacquiao logging 61 bouts and Rios only 33. But that could be either good or bad for Pacquiao. The experience will go a long way particularly in executing mid-stream adjustments. The drawback is the wear and tear in Pacquiao’s body – has the gruelling grind taken a heavy toll?

Both fighters are coming off losses. Pacquiao has lost two in a row to Timothy Bradley and Juan Manuel Marquez and hasn’t scored a stoppage since halting Miguel Cotto in 2009 or four years and six fights ago. Could that be an indication of some slippage? As for Rios, he lost a unanimous decision to Mike Alvarado last March and suffered the only stain in his record.  Who is more motivated to get back on the winning track?

Here are the 15 factors of consequence.

• Speed. Pacquiao’s brilliance is anchored on both his hand and footspeed. He throws combinations in a blur, leaving his opponent dazed, confused and unable to counter effectively. If Pacquiao stays busy unleashing combinations, Rios won’t be able to sustain his aggression because he’ll be more concerned in covering up than punching. Rios isn’t blessed with quickness and if he’s not in tip-top physical condition, he’ll even be slower. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Power. Pacquiao has scored 38 KOs in 61 fights compared to Rios’ 22 KOs in 33. Both boast of one-punch knockout power. What makes Pacquiao deadlier is he’s a lethal two-fisted combination flame thrower. Rios will bang one shot at a time, usually starting with a blast to the side of the body. If Rios’ reflexes aren’t sharp, he’ll be an easy target. Pacquiao’s power will be too much for Rios to take over a long haul so the expectation of a six round finish is reasonable. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Stamina. Whose legs will hold up if the fight drags to 12 rounds? Pacquiao is seven years older and that could make a difference. Rios is younger and on paper, should be more energetic. Pacquiao hasn’t fought since his knockout loss to Marquez last December or almost a year ago. Rios’ last outing was in March so his body may be tuned up a little bit more. Training camp for Pacquiao was over the top, said Freddie Roach. Robert Garcia said the same for Rios. Advantage: Rios.

• Footwork. Pacquiao moves around the ring with more grace and quickness than Rios. Footwork will be key in this fight. Since Rios likes to charge in, Pacquiao will easily create angles by sliding left to right. The lateral movement will leave Rios poking at air. Rios’ footwork has no reverse gear. He’s not used to boxing because he thrives in punching. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Resiliency. This has to do with smarts. Mid-stream adjustments are critical particularly if the fight takes a tactical turn. The intelligent fighter will know what to do to stem the tide if things aren’t working out. Rios isn’t a cerebral fighter. He relies more on instincts to brawl and maul. Pacquiao uses his head and won’t be outsmarted. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Defense. When Rios comes charging in, Pacquiao will be waiting to fend him off. Rios’ defense is atrociously porous particularly in moving forward. He wades in without punching and likes to tee off with a wide shot to the side of the body, exposing his face to a counter. Pacquiao’s defense isn’t just about covering up with his hands, it’s also about head and foot movement. The danger is Pacquiao could get careless when he thinks his opponent is ripe for the taking and risks a hit to land the clincher. That happened to Pacquiao in the fourth Marquez fight last December. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Style. Pacquiao has a lot more to offer in terms of style than Rios who’s basically uni-dimensional. The Filipino dervish will dazzle with his boxing skills or inflict punishment with his power punching. Rios doesn’t jab much as he prefers to just bulldoze his way inside. If Rios is predictable, Pacquiao is full of surprises. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Chin. Rios has never been knocked out and his only loss was a decision to Mike Alvarado. On the other hand, Pacquiao showed vulnerability when Marquez took him out with a single right straight last December. Pacquiao had also been stopped by Rustico Torrecampo and Medgoen 3-K Battery. In the fourth meeting with Marquez, Pacquiao went down twice, first from a long-range straight and second from a right flush on the nose. Against Rios, Pacquiao must guard his chin like the crown jewels or else pay a stiff price. Advantage: Rios.

• Corner. The war between Roach and Garcia will escalate in this fight. Both trainers are at odds with each other. There’s bad blood even if they deny it. Roach has gone through hell and back in his own boxing career. Garcia is a former world champion who retired early to start a new chapter – training – in his boxing odyssey. Roach’s intimate relationship with Pacquiao will carry over in the fight. They know each other closely and their communication will be vital in the course of the fight. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Heart. Never underestimate the heart of a champion, once said former Houston Rockets coach Rudy Tomjanovich. Courage is something that’s built in, it’s not transferable. In boxing, nobody has a heart bigger than Pacquiao’s. He throws caution to the wind, he fights to give the fans what they paid to see. Rios’ heart hasn’t been tested as much as Pacquiao’s. When the chips are down, expect the lion-hearted to rise. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Motivation. Who wants it more? Rios is hungry for recognition, fame and fortune – all of which Pacquiao has gained through years of hard work. Rios has won only one world title as a lightweight while Pacquiao’s trophy room has nearly run out of space. The difference in the equation is as the younger fighter, Rios has a lot of mileage left and more chances to rebound from a loss. Pacquiao is in the twilight of his career. He knows a loss to Rios could end his boxing journey. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Fan support. The crowd will be predominantly pro-Pacquiao this morning. There won’t be too many Americans or Mexicans to cheer for Rios because Macau is just too far away from the homeland. Rios said he’s not affected by the crowd one way or the other. But when the fans start roaring as Rios gets hit, he’ll need a shot in the arm to get by. That dose of extra juice won’t come from the crowd for sure. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Arsenal. The expanse of weaponry will be a factor. The fighter with a wider array of shots, both power and otherwise, has a distinct advantage because of the unpredictable nature of where the bullets will come from. Pacquiao isn’t only a left hook artist, he’s become a right cross specialist, too. He’ll jab, hook, cross and lead with either the left or right and his target is anywhere from head to the waist up. Rios is a slam banger, he doesn’t jab much because his orientation is to destroy and destruct. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Aggressiveness. Rios’ almost devil-may-care attitude is both a plus and negative. It could result in landing a knockout blow out of nowhere or it could open up his defense for a counter. Rios will pressure Pacquiao from the start, cut the ring off so the Filipino doesn’t use his lateral movement to find escape routes. Pacquiao must fight smart to avoid getting trapped. Advantage: Rios.

• Body strength. Both fighters plan to attack the body. Rios is a notorious body snatcher. His first blow in coming forward is a left hook to the side of the midsection. Pacquiao said he’ll target Rios’ body and punish him early. Against Miguel Acosta two years ago, Rios was badly hurt by a body punch in the third round and couldn’t recover until the fifth. Rios isn’t usually a strong starter and Pacquiao will take advantage of that. Pacquiao nearly went down from a body shot by Antonio Margarito but kept his legs straight. Advantage: Pacquiao.

In 10 out of the 15 factors, Pacquiao has the edge. The way things are shaping up, it’ll be a Pier 6 brawl this morning. If Rios isn’t in tip-top condition, he’ll risk everything and go for an early knockout which means he’ll take a shot for a chance to give a shot. That’s because he may not be able to endure a long war of attrition. If Rios stands his ground and engages Pacquiao in a toe-to-toe battle, the fight will end before the sixth. When the smoke clears, it will be Pacquiao’s arms raised in triumph.