The unsure thing

There’s no such thing as a sure bet in basketball. In a league like the NBA or even the PBA, the outcome of games is becoming more and more unpredictable as the balance of power comes to a state of equilibrium or at least close to it.

Take, for instance, the results of the PBA Governors Cup so far. Alaska, fresh from capturing the Commissioner’s Cup crown, was ambushed in the Aces’ first game by Globalport, courtesy of a Gary David triple down the stretch to ice it, 91-88. Air 21 stunned powerhouse San Mig Coffee, 93-82, then fell to Barako Bull by nine and to Petron by 26. Rain Or Shine got off to a hot 2-0 start but has since dropped two in a row. The Mixers bounced back from the loss to Air 21 to blow out Talk ‘N’ Text by 19. Meralco looked formidable in disposing of Petron, 89-83, then bowed to Barako Bull and Barangay Ginebra.

The Blaze Boosters were shaky in losing to the Bolts but rebounded to win three straight over Ginebra, Rain Or Shine and Air 21. Ginebra couldn’t get it going against Petron then leaned on L. A. Tenorio’s 34 points to trounce Meralco, 98-85. The imports, of course, make a huge difference. They can make a weak team strong and a strong team stronger but they can also make a strong team weak and a weak team weaker. They’re the equalizing factor in the conference and a big reason why the games are unpredictable.

In the NBA playoffs this past season, nine of the 15 series were clinched on the road and five teams won without the homecourt advantage. Of the 85 total playoff games, 31 were won on the road or 36 percent. En route to the throne, Miami won six road games, two in Milwaukee, two in Chicago, one in Indiana and one in San Antonio.

No doubt, the homecourt advantage is a boost. Of the nine playoff games that were settled in overtime, home teams won eight. The only team that won in extension on the road was San Antonio in defeating Memphis, 104-93, in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals. Chicago beat Boston, 142-134, in triple overtime in Game 4 of their series at home and the Spurs turned back Golden State, 129-127, in double overtime in Game 1 of their series, also at home.

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“There are several theories about why home turf conveys such an advantage – players are more comfortable in their own arena, they’re better rested, the homecrowd provides energy for its heroes in their time of need – but there are other, slightly more troubling factors involved, too,” wrote Paul Flannery in the Hemisphere Magazine (June 2013). “In their book Scorecasting, L. Jon Wertheim and Tobias J. Moskowitz found that referees across all sports were influenced to make calls favoring the home team. The writers theorized that this had less to do with bias than with the subconscious desire to please a mass audience – in this case, rabid hometown fans. Whatever the reason, the benefits are very real.”

Flannery said before this past season, the home team won 76 percent of the 75 playoff series over the previous five years. The percentage, however, dropped to 66 percent in the last playoffs, a positive indicator of increasing unpredictability.

The teams that won a playoff series without the homecourt advantage were No. 5 Chicago over No. 4 Boston, No. 3 Indiana over No. 2 New York, No. 6 Golden State over No. 3 Denver, No. 5 Memphis over No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers and No. 5 Memphis over No. 1 Oklahoma City. The teams that clinched on the road were Miami over Milwaukee in Game 4, New York over Boston in Game 6, Indiana over Atlanta in Game 6, Chicago over Brooklyn in Game 7, Oklahoma City over Houston in Game 6, San Antonio over the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 4, Memphis over Oklahoma City in Game 5, San Antonio over Golden State in Game 6 and San Antonio over Memphis in Game 4. So six teams bowed out of contention before a disappointed homecrowd.

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Unlike in the NBA, there is no homecourt advantage in the PBA although Ginebra fans will dispute it because their team is clearly the crowd darling. Theoretically, the homecourt advantage doesn’t exist in the PBA and that makes it more unpredictable. During the recent FIBA-Asia Championships, the homecourt played a big role in energizing Gilas all the way to the finals.

Flannery said in the NBA, there is little chance of upsetting the applecart when it comes to the finals. “Since the 2000 season, only one team has advanced to the finals with a record that wasn’t among the top three in their conference – the 2010 Celtics,” he noted. “Only nine teams have won championships since 1980 and just one franchise during that period, the Detroit Pistons, did it without a former, current or future MVP on the roster. Yet Detroit still had topnotch talent, most notably Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas who helped them win back-to-back titles in the late 1980s.”

But even as the favorites usually bag the ultimate prize, Flannery said “the possibility of surprise, no matter how small, sustains us through the early rounds and right up to the grand conclusion ... no reality show can match sports for unscripted drama, each game is a pulp novel, with heroes, villains and plot twists galore.” No matter the odds, fans acknowledge the unpredictability of a game because after all, as the adage goes, the ball is round.