Will teams tank to avoid favorites

If unbeaten Iran is the hot favorite to win the 27th FIBA-Asia crown, it’s possible teams will tank to avoid facing Hamed Haddadi and company in the semifinals on Saturday. It’s a likely scenario if coaches are looking beyond the second round of eliminations and Friday’s knockout quarterfinals.

In the quarterfinals, the crossover pairings will match No. 1 against No. 4 and No. 2 against No. 3, meaning the top finisher of Groups A-B will take on the last qualifier of Groups C-D and the top finisher of Groups C-D will meet the last qualifier of Groups A-B. Quarterfinal losers are automatically out of contention for the three Asian zone slots in the FIBA World Cup in Spain next year so it’s a must-win situation for the eight contenders.

The placings in Groups C-D are almost predictable. Iran is expected to be No. 1, Korea No. 2 and China No. 3 as those three teams should breeze past Group D qualifiers Kazakhstan, Bahrain and India in the second round. In Groups A-B, there could be some tanking involved if teams don’t like their chances against China in the knockout quarterfinals. If China ends up No. 3, a team might bring itself down to No. 3 to clash with likely No. 2 Korea in the quarterfinals instead. That depends on if a team figures it has a better chance to survive Korea than China.

No team in Groups A-B would like to finish No. 4 after the second round because that means engaging Iran in the quarterfinals. So expect teams to desperately slug it out to finish at least No. 3. Still, it’s not a closed book that Iran will step all over No. 4 in the quarterfinals. At the FIBA-Asia Championships in Wuhan two years ago, Iran finished No. 1 out of Groups A-B and was upset by No. 4 Jordan from Groups C-D in the knockout quarterfinals. Iran wound up with an overall record of 8-1 but placed only fifth because of the shock loss to Jordan which advanced all the way to the finals, losing to China by a point in the title game.

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The intriguing possibility is teams tanking to evade Iran in the semifinals. If tanking to “fix” matchups in the quarterfinals is medium-term planning, then tanking for the semifinals is long-term planning. In the semifinals, Iran from Groups C-D will play the winner of the quarterfinal match between No. 2 from Groups A-B and No. 3 from Groups C-D. That’s assuming Iran beats No. 4 from Groups A-B in the quarterfinals. So if you’re the Philippines and you don’t want to meet Iran either in the quarterfinals or semifinals, you can’t finish No. 2 or No. 4 after the second round. That means to avoid Iran in the quarterfinals and semifinals, Gilas must finish either No. 1 or No. 3 out of Groups A-B.

If Gilas ends up No. 2 after the second round, it will play No. 3 from Groups C-D in the quarterfinals and that could be China. If Gilas beats China, it moves on to play Iran in the semifinals assuming Iran advances, too. However, losing to Iran may not be a bad thing in the semifinals because the loser will move on to play the other semifinal loser in the battle for the last ticket to Spain. Of course, the two semifinal winners are guaranteed slots to the FIBA World Cup outright.

If Gilas winds up No. 3 after the second round, it will play No. 2 from Groups C-D which could be Korea in the quarterfinals. If Gilas wins, it moves on to play the winner of the quarterfinal match between No. 1 from Groups A-B, likely Chinese-Taipei, and No. 4 from Groups C-D, likely Kazakhstan. That could set up a rematch between Gilas and Chinese-Taipei in the semifinals – a mouth-watering prospect for fans and politicians alike.

The way things look, Gilas might be better off finishing No. 3 instead of No. 2 after the second round to avoid facing China in the quarterfinals and Iran in the semifinals. But that’s putting the horse before the cart. At the moment, Gilas must try to win all its games and assess its situation down the road. Tanking will be too early a strategy at the moment because there are unpredictable things that could happen along the way such as Iran or China or Korea losing a game or two in the second round. Besides, tanking could backfire in the end. Taking one step backward to advance two steps forward may be a smart thing to do sometimes but holding back in a game could haunt a team when the smoke of battle clears.

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Iran’s gigantic center Hamed Haddadi has a curious romantic history. When he joined the Memphis Grizzlies in the NBA in 2008-09, the team media guidebook identified his wife as Misagh. But in November 2010, in his third year with the Grizzlies, the 7-2 Haddadi made the sports headlines not for his stellar play but for an altercation with his girlfriend Goolmaz (Asal) Karbalaeinematmoeeney in a 12th floor Memphis downtown apartment.

Writer Jody Callahan reported that both Haddadi and Goolmaz were arrested by police for domestic violence. Police found Goolmaz “extremely intoxicated” and bleeding from the head and hand with a black eye and bruising around the neck. Haddadi wasn’t spared himself. He had several scratches on his face and a wound in his hand. When both parties gave conflicting testimonies, police decided to charge them together.

Goolmaz said she was choked and physically attacked by Haddadi who supposedly got jealous after he saw her talking to another man. But Haddadi’s version was tabloid material. He said the altercation erupted after Goolmaz fell out of bed from an awkward sexual position. Callahan said Haddadi claimed she threw a soap dispenser and other things at him then locked herself in the bathroom. Haddadi kicked the bathroom door open, insisting it was out of fear that she may cut herself with a knife. Both were brought to the Regional Medical Center in Memphis “in non-critical condition.” The question that begs to be answered is where was Misagh during this fiery dispute?

At the time of the arrest, Haddadi had earned $3.2 million playing with the Grizzlies and was on a $1.6 million contract that year. In 2012, he was signed to a two-year extension for $2.7 million by Memphis but after playing 13 games that season, was traded initially to Toronto then to Phoenix. Haddadi played 30 games in 2012-13, including 17 with the Suns, and averaged a combined 2.8 points and 3.7 rebounds. Last June, he was cut by the Suns but will still bankroll $200,000 as a guarantee in his contract this year.