Expert predicts Gilas in Final 4

MANILA, Philippines - A foreign basketball expert recently picked Gilas Pilipinas to make it to the semifinals of the 27th FIBA-Asia Championships here on Aug. 1-11 with Iran, China and Lebanon also qualifying for the Final Four but hesitated to predict if the home team will clinch one of three tickets to represent the continent at the FIBA World Cup in Spain next year.

Gilas is bracketed in Group A with Jordan, Chinese-Taipei and Saudi Arabia and if it advances to the second round of eliminations, will play Japan, Qatar and Lebanon before the knockout quarterfinals. China and Iran are in Group C with Korea and a Southeast Asian team still to be determined.

For Gilas to barge into the semifinals, the Philippine team must finish in the top four of Groups A and B then survive the knockout quarterfinals. If Gilas ends up No. 1 or No. 2 out of Groups A and B, it will likely battle Korea, Kazakhstan or India before the semifinals. If it slides to No. 3 or No. 4, playing either China or Iran looms as a dangerous possibility in the knockout quarterfinals.

The expert, whose identity is withheld, downplayed China’s chances to eventually win the title. “They’ve got a new coach Panagiotis Giannakis and it’s still not certain if the players will adjust quickly to his system,” he said. Giannakis was recruited after China failed to win a single game at the London Olympics. China didn’t bother to send its A-team to the East Asia qualifiers in Incheon last May and lost to South Korea in the finals, 68-79. The knock on China is its NBA veterans – 7-1 Wang Zhizhi, 35, 7-foot Yi Jianlian, 25 and 6-9 Sun Yue, 27 – may not be as hungry as before.

Giannakis coached China to a split of its Perth series with the Australian national team last week. Wang Zhizhi scored 17 points to lead China to a 61-55 win in the first game but the Boomers came back to crush the visitors, 85-50. The battleground shifted to China last Thursday as Australia won again, 68-65. To warm up for Manila, China will play Australia, Argentina, Germany, Nigeria and Puerto Rico in the Stankovic Cup in Lanzhou on June 28-July 2. The Chinese will also engage European teams in two series on July 15-17 and July 19-21 before leaving for Manila.

With the Philippines blacklisted from participating at the Jones Cup in Taipei, the expert said it’s too late to accommodate Gilas in the Stankovic Cup. Now in training camp in Lithuania, Gilas is arranging for tune-up games in Japan and even the US or Australia but the coaching staff prefers tournament-style contests instead of one-off friendlies.

The expert said he doesn’t expect Jordan or Qatar to advance to the semifinals. “Jordan has a new coach (Vangelis Alexandris of Greece) and they’re bringing in a new naturalized player,” he said. “Veterans Sam Daghles and Zaid Abbas wanted to retire from international competition but were persuaded to come back. Qatar had eligibility problems with players at the last FIBA-Asia Championships and finished without a win. It remains to be seen if they can assemble a competitive lineup of eligible players.”

Jordan recently announced a 20-man pool for the national team without naturalized player Rasheim Wright who took the squad, then coached by Tab Baldwin, to second place at the last FIBA-Asia Championships in Wuhan. Daghles, Abbas, 6-5 Fares Saqfalhait and 6-10 Ahmad Al Dwairi are in the cast. Rumored to replace Wright in Manila is 6-5, 230-pound Andre Emmett who has played for Memphis and New Jersey in the NBA. Emmett, 30, was Seattle’s second round pick in the 2004 NBA draft out of Texas Tech. In 2010, he scored 71 points in a game in the Chinese league. Emmett has played as an import in Belgium, Lithuania, France, Puerto Rico, China and Lebanon.

Jordan is a long-time Gilas nemesis, knocking the Philippines out of contention, 84-76, in the first round of the 2007 FIBA-Asia Championships in Tokushima. In the 2009 FIBA-Asia semifinals, Jordan again beat the Philippines, 81-70, in the knockout quarterfinals in Tianjin. And in 2011, Jordan repulsed Gilas, 75-61, in the semifinals.

Qatar finished at the bottom of the last FIBA-Asia Championships after five players were ruled ineligible in the preliminaries. Qatar forfeited games to Iran and Uzbekistan because most of the remaining eligible players had fouled out. Coach Tom Wisman revived Qatar’s hopes of a comeback by leading the team to third place at the FIBA-Asia Cup in Tokyo last year. A 73-66 loss to Japan in the FIBA-Asia Cup semifinals could cost naturalized player and NBA veteran Trey Johnson his job. Johnson was held to 2-of-14 field goals and 10 points in the setback. The 6-5 Johnson, 28, has played for Cleveland, the Los Angeles Lakers, Toronto and New Orleans in the NBA. Back in the national lineup are 6-9 Yaseen Imail, 32, 6-6 Erfan Ali Saeed, 29, 6-4 Daoud Musa, 31 and 6-4 Abdul Rahman Saad, 28. It’s not known if Congo native Tanguy Ngombo, the Dallas Mavericks second round pick in 2011, will be reinstated as a Qatari local.

In place of Johnson, the scuttlebutt is Qatar will bring in seven-year NBA veteran Jarvin Hayes as its naturalized player. Hayes, 31, earned over $13.3 Million with Washington, Detroit and New Jersey in the NBA. The 6-7 forward from the University of Georgia has played as an import in Turkey, Russia and Israel.

If Gilas makes it to the semifinals, it gains two chances to clinch one of the three tickets to the FIBA World Cup. If it loses in the semifinals, Gilas will play the other loser in a battle for third. “If Gilas is in a do-or-die game, expect the homecrowd to provide the lift,” said the expert. “That’s when the homecourt advantage kicks in.” At the last FIBA-Asia Championships, Gilas figured in a battle for third against Korea and lost a 70-68 heartbreaker in Wuhan.