Gilas’ choice based on probabilities

MANILA, Philippines - It came down to weighing the probabilities and Gilas coach Chot Reyes decided to pick Group A instead of Group D in the FIBA-Asia draw last week because the national team would rather be ranked No. 1 or No. 2 against Groups C and D than No. 3 or No. 4 against Groups A and B in the knockout quarterfinals.

Gilas assistant coaches Norman Black and Nash Racela manned the Philippine desk during the draw. Throughout the proceedings, they were in constant cellphone communication with Reyes who was in Lithuania for a two-week training camp. Reyes monitored the developments with assistant coaches Joseph Uichico and Josh Reyes in Lithuania. Another assistant coach Ryan Gregorio was in the US.

The Philippines chose 13th in the lottery, a privilege for the host nation, after three rounds were finished to fill four groups with three teams each. FIBA-Asia secretary-general Hagop Khajirian of Lebanon called on Black to announce which group Gilas chose to join in the preliminaries. Khajirian initially gave Black one minute to disclose Gilas’ decision but the wait extended to about 10 minutes.

Racela said after the first four picks, it became clear which group Gilas would veer towards. Jordan, Chinese-Taipei and Saudi Arabia were picked 1-2-3 for Group A then China went to Group C. The next eight picks were in order, Korea in Group C, Japan in Group B, Qatar in Group B, Lebanon in Group B, Iran in Group C, Kazakhstan in Group D, Southeast Asia 1 in Group D and India in Group D.

Black explained that the coaching staff’s consensus was the odds would be higher for the Philippines to survive the knockout quarterfinals if Gilas joined Group A. In the first round of competition, each team will play a game against the other three teams in their group. The top three in each group move to the second round. The fourth placer in each group will be eliminated. The 12 surviving teams are then divided into two groups of six each. One new group will consist of teams from Groups A and B while the other from Groups C and D. Each team will play a game against the other teams not included in their preliminary round group carrying over first round records except the result of the eliminated teams. The top four teams in the two groups will advance to the knockout quarterfinals with the bottom two teams struck out.

In the crossover knockout quarterfinals, the teams from one group will battle teams from the other group with the pairings No. 1 vs No. 4 and No. 2 vs No. 3. The four winners will go to the semifinals where the survivors advance to dispute the title and the losers slug it out for third place.

In the first round, Gilas will play Jordan, Chinese-Taipei and Saudi Arabia. In the second round, it will play Japan, Qatar and Lebanon as Hong Kong is expected to be ousted early. If Gilas finishes No. 1, it will play No. 4 from Groups C and D in the knockout quarterfinals. The probability is Kazakhstan or India will finish No. 4 in Groups C and D. If Gilas ends up No. 2, it will play No. 3 from Groups C and D which is likely to be Korea. The danger is if Gilas finishes No. 3 or No. 4, it will play China or Iran in the knockout quarterfinals.

If Gilas picked Group D, it will probably wind up No. 3 or No. 4 in Groups C and D with China, Iran and Korea in the mix. That would mean playing No. 1 or No. 2 from Groups A and B, probably Jordan or Lebanon with Qatar or Japan an outside shot.

Black explained that the probability is higher for Gilas to beat Korea or Kazakhstan or India in a knockout quarterfinal pairing than to defeat Jordan or Lebanon. “The key is finishing first or second entering the knockout quarterfinals,” said Black. “To do it, we must beat Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and Japan. If we don’t beat those teams, we don’t deserve to be in the semifinals.”

Racela pointed out that if and when Gilas makes it to the Final Four, there will be two chances to pocket one of three tickets up for grabs to represent Asia at the FIBA World Cup in Spain next year. A win in the semifinals guarantees a ticket to Spain because it will mean a first or second place finish in the FIBA-Asia tournament. A loss will set up a do-or-die battle for the last ticket to Spain.

Racela said India is an emerging power in Asia and could be the tournament darkhorse. If India ends up No. 4 from Groups C and D and Gilas finishes No. 1 from Groups A and B, they will meet in the knockout quarterfinals. “The coach of India’s U-18 team is the same coach coming for the FIBA-Asia Championships,” said Racela. “So I expect a lot of the U-18 players in the senior team. They’ve got 6-7 shooters who can really light it up and I heard India’s bigs, including 7-footers, are being trained in the US.”

Black said no matter the probabilities, the road to the Final Four won’t be easy. “Whether the choice was Group A or D, it will still be tough to make it to the semifinals,” said Black. “Now that we’ve picked Group A, we’ll be ready for any eventuality in the run-up to the knockout quarterfinals.”