Thain picks Manny by decision

It’s Manny Pacquiao over Juan Manuel Marquez via a close but clear decision in their fourth meeting at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on Dec. 8. That’s how unbeaten Fil-Scot lightmiddleweight John Thain predicts the fight will end and he’s cheering for Pacquiao all the way.

Thain, whose Filipina mother Riz Aying is his biggest fan, told The STAR in an e-mail the other day that if Pacquiao wins, it will probably be the final chapter in the quadrilogy. “But if Marquez wins, Pacquiao may want to box him again,” he said. “I think the fight will be close but it’ll be a clear decision for Pacquiao. I’m not sure if Pacquiao could knock out Marquez but he has definitely hurt him before and of course, scored those knockdowns. Marquez has stunned Pacquiao but I don’t think he’ll knock him out. With his movement, Marquez is good at avoiding Pacquiao’s powerful left hand since suffering those knockdowns.”

In their first encounter in 2004, Pacquiao decked Marquez thrice in the opening round but the Mexican came back to force a split draw. The outcome should’ve been a win by split decision for Pacquiao but judge Burt Clements erred in scoring the first round 10-7 instead of 10-6 because of the three knockdowns. Clements saw it 113-all but his scorecard should’ve read 114-113 for Pacquiao. Four years later, they met in a rematch with Pacquiao eking out a split 12-round verdict on the strength of a knockdown in the third.

Thain said he expects Pacquiao and Marquez to surprise each other when they face off next month. They won’t be predictable. They’re familiar with each other’s styles but it won’t mean the same old script. 

“I think this will be different from the last one where Pacquiao had an off-night, it seems,” continued Thain. “This time, I think he’ll be more determined than ever to leave no doubt and show more angles and movement and will want the knockout win. Marquez might also be more aggressive. They are very evenly matched. Marquez has a difficult style to beat because he can counterpunch and can also be effective going forward. He’s the complete boxer and an expert at boxing against southpaws.”

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As both fighters are getting on in years, Thain said conditioning can play a big factor. “Pacquiao has a high workrate and is the faster man but to keep that up, he needs to be at his best,” he said. “Marquez looked strong in their last fight than in the previous two so may choose to add more strength work in his training. Weighing 147 might suit Pacquiao better though. I don’t see Marquez as an old fighter though he’s 39.” Pacquiao is turning 34 next month.

Thain said trainer Freddie Roach will be up to the task even if he’s been on a losing streak lately with successive losses to Pacquiao (by Tim Bradley), Amir Khan (by Danny Garcia) and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (to Sergio Martinez). “Maybe, there is pressure (to win) but I don’t think that will affect Freddie,” said Thain. “If anything, because of the closeness of the last three fights, he will want Pacquiao to finish as a decisive winner, by KO if possible, and leave no doubt.”

Thain said the fight could be a tactical chess match or an all-out war depending on the strategies of both corners. “I think a war suits Pacquiao and a tactical match suits Marquez,” he said. “Marquez enjoys boxing southpaws but at his own pace, so the faster the pace, the better for Pacquiao. If I was a southpaw boxing Marquez, I would be trying to throw more feints to draw those counters and be constantly moving in both directions, changing the angle after my punches.”

Thain said he hopes Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr. square off sooner than later. “Pacquiao’s been ready for Mayweather since 2008,” he said. “I don’t know who’ll come out on top but I want Pacquiao to win.”

As for someday fighting in the Philippines, Thain said he’d welcome the opportunity. “I would love to box in the Philippines,” he said. “I definitely want to do that in the future. In most of my fights, including my last one, I have worn the Filipino colors. They’re designed in the shape of the Filipino flag. In my next fight, I’ve designed new shorts which will be revealed on fight night. They feature both the Philippine and Scottish flags.”

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Thain, who has visited here twice (the last was in 2006), made his pro debut two years ago and has an 8-0 record, with 1 KO. He said the fighters whom he’d like most to be are Sugar Ray Robinson, Sugar Ray Leonard, Tommy Hearns and Alexis Arguello. Before turning pro, Thain logged about 60 amateur fights. “My amateur record at the beginning was pretty poor to be honest,” he said. “But I did manage to win a Scottish youth title at 41 kilograms in 2003. Out of my first 30 contests, I think I lost about 20. I was determined, though, and managed to turn it around when I won the Scottish Amateur Championship in 2008 at 64 kilograms. I represented Scotland in a few tournaments, including the European Championships in 2008 which was a good experience. The highlight for me was winning gold in Canada in 2008 at St. Catharine’s.”

Thain was born and lives in Edinburgh with his 46-year-old mother who works as a cleaner. His father John Sr. died in 2002. “There is a Filipino community in Edinburgh but I think I might be the only boxer from Scotland with Filipino family,” he said. “There are a few muay Thai fighters who are Filipino or part Filipino.”