Air21 and Petron will figure in a five-way tie for fifth if they win over separate opponents in the final PBA Commissioner’s Cup elimination schedule at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight but because of the quotient system and the rule that only one playoff for the second or sixth spot will be allowed, they’re technically out of contention.
Despite their predicament, expect a lot of fireworks when Air21 (3-5) takes on Barangay Ginebra (5-3) in the first game and Petron (3-5) battles Talk ‘N’ Text (6-2) in the nightcap of a potentially explosive twinbill. That’s because Ginebra must win to gain a knockout playoff for the second outright semifinals slot against either B-Meg or Talk ‘N’ Text. A loss will drop the Kings to No. 4 behind Alaska and confirm an appointment with Powerade in a best-of-three quarterfinal series. Also, the Tropa must beat Petron to avoid facing off against Ginebra in a playoff for that second outright semifinals ticket.
For sure, there will be at least one playoff game on Friday. If Air21 wins over Ginebra, the playoff will be a do-or-die duel for sixth place involving Meralco. If Ginebra prevails, two playoff games will be held on Friday, guaranteeing another box office hit.
It must be clarified that under conference rules, the PBA will allow only one playoff for second or sixth spot regardless of how many teams are involved in a tie. This will prevent a tedious extension of the schedule and guarantee an instant knockout game or games in one night. Quotients or point differentials are computed only from scores of the teams involved in a tie against each other.
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Here are the four scenarios that could happen depending on the outcome of tonight’s games.
• If Air21 and Petron win. A playoff for second won’t be necessary as Talk ‘N’ Text and B-Meg gain safe passage into the semifinals ranked No. 1 and No. 2. Barako Bull, Powerade, Meralco, Petron and Air21 finish with identical 4-5 marks. Since four teams will be eliminated, only two of the five tied teams will advance. To break the tie, the PBA will use both the quotient system and a single playoff.
The top team among the five will automatically move to the playoffs and that would be Powerade with a +41 differential. The last two are booted out – Petron at -32 and Air21 at -44, leaving Barako (+22) and Meralco (+13) to slug it out for the last playoff berth. In this case, No. 4 Ginebra, dropping to 5-4, will meet No. 5 Powerade in a best-of-three quarterfinal series while No. 3 Alaska will face the Barako-Meralco survivor in the other best-of-three quarterfinal tie.
• If Air21 and TNT win. The Texters become the undisputed No. 1 seed with a 7-2 mark and advance to the semifinals outright with B-Meg (6-3). Ginebra drops to No. 4 at 5-4 behind Alaska (5-4) by virtue of the winner-over-the-other rule. Petron finishes in a tie for last place with Rain Or Shine at 3-6 apiece.
A four-way tie for fifth will be broken by the quotient system and a single playoff. In this case, Powerade enters the playoffs outright with a +31 differential and Air21 is knocked out with a -30 differential. Barako (+8) and Meralco (-9) will duke it out in a playoff for the sixth playoff slot.
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• If Ginebra and Petron win. This will mean two playoff games on Friday. Talk ‘N’ Text, B-Meg and Ginebra end up tied for first with identical 6-3 records. In this case, B-Meg advances to the semifinals outright by virtue of a superior +10 differential. The Texters (+3) and Kings (-13) will square off for the second outright semifinals ticket.
A four-way tie for fifth emerges with Barako, Powerade, Meralco and Petron toting similar 4-5 records. To break the logjam, the PBA will once more apply the quotient system and a single playoff. Of the four teams, Barako has the superior differential with +31 and moves straight to the playoffs while Petron (-46) exits. That will leave Powerade (+12) and Meralco (+3) to settle which team advances or departs.
• If Ginebra and Talk ‘N’ Text win. Two playoff games will be held on Friday to determine the second and sixth placers. The Texters advance to the semifinals outright at 7-2 while B-Meg and Ginebra, both at 6-3, will face off to determine which team joins the Tropa in waiting. In the other playoff, it will be Powerade (+2) against Meralco (-19) with Barako advancing straight to the playoffs with a +17 differential. In this case, Barako, Powerade and Meralco end up tied at 4-5 with Air21, Petron and Rain Or Shine finishing at 3-6 each.
The results of tonight’s games will determine whether Friday’s bill will feature one or two knockout playoff battles.