Will Azkals defy the odds?

MANILA, Philippines - Former national football coach Juan Cutillas said Turkmenistan is slightly favored to beat the Philippines in the semifinals of the AFC Challenge Cup in Nepal today but he isn’t discounting the possibility of an upset because “no team in the tournament is more committed to win than the Azkals.”

Cutillas, a Spanish native who has settled in Manila, said the absence of Angel Guirado and James Younghusband due to a one-game suspension for accumulating two yellow cards will be a disadvantage. Still, the Kaya F. C. coach said he’s confident the Azkals will make the adjustments to compensate.

“We’ve improved tremendously,” said Cutillas. “Against Tajikistan, I thought we played poorly in the first half but our adjustments in the second half worked. Credit goes to coach (Michael) Weiss. It usually happens that when a team wins, the players get the accolades but when the team loses, the coach is to blame. Coach Weiss deserves credit for bringing us to where we are. I think our exposure to international competition has made us stronger. We’re playing regularly now, here and abroad. The quality of our game has greatly improved. We’re better organized, we’re more prepared. I also think we’ve gotten bigger and stronger. We’re more used to playing together as a team and the results are evident. ”

Cutillas said the Turkmen are physical and aggressive by nature. “We know they’re tougher than Tajikistan,” he continued. “But even if they’re favored, we can turn things around with our determination, desire to win and commitment.”

Cutillas said skipper Aly Borromeo’s presence would make a big difference. “Our defense is very strong but Aly would make it even stronger,” he added. “We’re missing his leadership, his control and strength. His recovery is progressing and we expect Aly to be playing again at the end of next month or early May.”

Borromeo, who underwent surgery for an ACL tear in the knee, said Rob Gier’s insertion in the backline has made an impact on the pitch. “The biggest improvement would be Rob’s infusion at the back and Juani Guirado in the midfield,” he noted. “They provide the experience and understanding of football at this level. Without Angel and James, we might see our team drop and defend more. They’re both workhorses and we’ll be missing that.”

As for Turkmenistan, Borromeo said he expects the 2010 Challenge Cup runner-up to put early pressure on the Azkals like Tajikistan. “If we’re able to hold them for the first 30 minutes, we have a great chance,” he pointed out.

The Philippines and Turkmenistan duelled in April 2009 during the Challenge Cup qualifiers in Maldives. The Turkmen won, 5-0, with Aris Caslib coaching the Philippines whose players included goalkeeper Neil Etheridge, Gier, James Younghusband and Chiefy Caligdong.  Berdi Shamuradov, 29, accounted for two of Turkmenistan’s five goals. Since that match, the Azkals have beefed up their lineup considerably with the addition of the Guirado brothers, Carli de Murga, Paul Mulders, Ray Jonsson, Misagh Bahadoran and Jason Sabio among others. Phil Younghusband, who didn’t play against Turkmenistan in 2009, is now suited up.

Caslib said the Turkmen are dangerous at the flanks and use quick combination plays on top of the penalty box. “Our defense must be aware where their attack will come from,” said Caslib. “The team that I coached against Turkmenistan in 2009 is nowhere near the strength of our team now. A big difference in the way we play is before, Phil used to get the ball near the halfline but now our midfielders are establishing control to bring him the ball close to the penalty box. Our goalkeeper and three of our back four have now been playing together for two or three years so they’re very familiar with each other. But I think our biggest advantage is our psychological momentum. The players are really pushing to get to the next level and it’s a positive sign entering the semifinals.”

Turkmenistan is ranked No. 166 by FIFA and the Philippines, No. 156. But in the Asian level, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and India are classified among 14 second-tier developing associations while the Philippines is among 17 third-tier emerging associations. Tajikistan is ranked No. 145 by FIFA and India, No. 158. The other Challenge Cup semifinalists are No. 111 North Korea and No. 160 Palestine.

“FIFA ranks countries depending on how often they play in FIFA-sanctioned tournaments,” explained Cutillas. “If you don’t play in FIFA competitions, you don’t move. So I give more credence to the Asian rankings. I think Turkmenistan is ranked higher than the Philippines at the moment.” But that could change depending on the outcome of the match today.

Turkmenistan, a former Soviet state, has played in 18 games in four Asian Games, compiling a record of six wins, six losses and six draws. It reached the quarterfinals at the 1994 Hiroshima and 1998 Bangkok Asiad. Turkmenistan qualified for the 2004 Asian Cup but fared poorly, drawing once and losing twice in three matches. In the 2010 Challenge Cup, Turkmenistan lost to North Korea in the finals via a 5-4 count in a penalty shootout after battling to a 1-1 standoff in regulation and injury time.

In the ongoing Challenge Cup, Turkmenistan beat Maldives, 3-2, drew with Palestine, 0-0, and crushed Nepal, 3-0, with goals scored by Latvian 20-year-old import Ruslan Mingazov, Gahrymanberdi Chonkayev, Elman Tagayev and Guwanch Hangeldiyev. Nepal’s Biraj Maharjan contributed one of the Turkmens’ five goals scoring against his own team.

The Azkals qualified for the Challenge Cup by finishing second in its elimination group, drawing with Myanmar, 1-1, and Palestine, 0-0, and trouncing Bangladesh, 3-0. In the Challenge Cup proper, they lost to North Korea, 0-2, but drubbed India, 2-0, and Tajikistan, 2-1, to make it to the semifinals for the first time ever.