Forget a fourth fight

LOS ANGELES – Will fans pay to watch a fourth meeting between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez? That’s the big $22 Million question. Pacquiao was guaranteed $22 Million for taking on Marquez at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas last weekend. In a theoretical fourth encounter, would promoter Bob Arum cough up the same guarantee?

Arum said if the fans want a fourth meeting, he’ll make it happen. Surely, Pacquiao wouldn’t back off. He’s not afraid to fight anyone – he’s said that time and time again. But wait, Marquez said he’s thinking of retiring, citing family pressure. Marquez claimed he was robbed not once, not twice but thrice – nobody could be burdened with worse luck. It’s like he’s struck out so why bother with a fourth disappointment? Nine different judges were involved in their three fights – five scored it for Pacquiao, two had it even and two saw it for Marquez. The five whose scorecards favored Pacquiao were John Stewart, Duane Ford, Tom Miller, Glenn Trowbridge and Dave Moretti, all experienced boxing judges.

Marquez is 38 although he didn’t look it against Pacquiao when the judges awarded the win to the Filipino on a majority 12-round verdict. He surprised everyone, including the Mexican press, by standing his ground and carrying the extra weight without difficulty – until the eighth round when his work-rate began to drop. Mexican boxing commentators Eduardo Lamazon and Marco Antonio Barrera didn’t give Marquez a ghost of a chance before the fight. Neither did oddsmakers who installed Pacquiao a whopping 9.5-1 favorite the day of the contest.

If ever they square off again, the outcome will be as debatable as in the three bouts. The first ended in a split draw in 2004. The second wound up with Pacquiao claiming a split decision in 2008. It’s because their styles neutralize each other’s. Pacquiao is a come-forward bomber while Marquez is a technician who likes to counterpunch. Pacquiao initiates, Marquez retaliates. Pacquiao is aggressive, Marquez passive. They’re like made for each other.

* * *

Freddie Roach admitted that Marquez has the key to unlock Pacquiao’s secrets. “He’s got Manny figured out, he has his number but still, Manny did enough to win their three fights,” said Roach who’ll agree to a fourth encounter if only to assure fans Pacquiao doesn’t run away from anyone.

But will a fourth fight prove anything? If it ends in another inconclusive ending, will there be a fifth? Every fight will be close but Pacquiao won’t be denied the slimmest of margins because of his style. He’s a volume puncher. Marquez is selective and picks his shots. In a bout that’s close, judges will always veer towards the more aggressive fighter. It’s a case of quantity over quality.

Last weekend, Marquez scored clearer punches but they were less than Pacquiao’s. Businessman Hermie Esguerra, watching the fight at ringside, suggested an analogy with basketball. “I agree that Marquez had more highlight hits – the kind that you like to see in slo-mo replays on TV,” he explained. “But Manny scored more punches as the statistics showed. It’s like in basketball. One team scores more points than the other and wins but isn’t as flashy. The winning team’s points come from ordinary layups, nothing spectacular. The loser scores less points but is flashy with a lot of dunks. The slo-mo replays, of course, will show the dunks. But in the end, what counts is how many points you score, never mind the dunks or spectacular plays. That’s how it was with Manny.  Marquez landed impressive shots but Manny scored more points.”

* * *

In my view, a fourth fight is useless. I’m not sure if fans will want to pay for another debate. It’s like the trilogy between Muhammad Ali and Ken Norton. Ali was Superman in the eyes of millions of fans – at his peak – but Norton was his kryptonite like Marquez is to Pacquiao. Buboy Fernandez called it “contra pelo.”

In March 1973, Ali lost a split 12-round decision to Norton in San Diego. Referee-judge Frank Rustich scored it 7-4-1 in rounds, judge Hal Rickard 5-4-3, both for Norton, and judge Fred Hayes 6-5-1 for Ali. In September that year, Ali beat Norton by a split 12-round decision in Inglewood with referee-judge Dick Young scoring it 7-5 and judge John Thomas 6-5-1 for Ali and judge George Latka 6-5-1 for Norton. In the rubber match, Ali defeated Norton by a unanimous 15-round decision in New York but the scores were close as referee-judge Arthur Mercante scored it 8-6-1, judge Harold Lederman 8-7 and judge Barney Smith 8-7. By the way, Lederman was on the HBO TV panel scoring the Pacquiao-Marquez fight last weekend and scored it 8-4 in rounds for the Filipino.

Ali and Norton never figured in a fourth bout. It would’ve been an exercise in futility. Ali went on to log six more fights, losing thrice, before retiring in 1981. Norton had nine more bouts, also losing thrice, and retired in 1981. For the same reason why Ali and Norton didn’t bother to face off in a fourth meeting, Pacquiao and Marquez should forget about another encounter. There are more exciting opponents in line other than Marquez for Pacquiao – Floyd Mayweather, Andre Berto, Vyacheslav Senchenko and maybe even Amir Khan.

Marquez hasn’t beaten Pacquiao in three fights. It’s time for Pacquiao to move forward.